How Delhi deluded itself on NSG

NEW DELHI: When Prime Minister Narendra Modi's flight took off from Mexico City on the night of June 8, the celebratory sentiments on his plane contrasted starkly with the darker mood in the foreign office of the country he had just left. Over a brief, four-hour stopover, Modi had drawn a verbal commitment from Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto for "positive constructive support" to India's bid to join the 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that sets global rules for all nuclear exports. Modi had only two days earlier secured a similar assurance from Switzerland President Johann Schneider-Ammann.

Mexico and Switzerland were traditional hardliners within the NSG, holding the non-proliferation treaty - which India considers discriminatory and refuses to sign - as a cornerstone of the nuclear export club. With the commitments, Indian officials were convinced New Delhi stood on the verge of joining the NSG, very possibly at its then upcoming plenary in Seoul. But 30,000ft below, rumblings of unhappiness had erupted within the Mexican foreign office. In internal conversations, officials wondered whether Mexico had deviated too far from its traditional approach to the NSG membership, and what the country would get in return. Similar conversations were already under way in Switzerland, Ireland and New Zealand - countries that India has wooed over the past year through visits by its leaders. Two weeks later on June 23-24 at the Seoul plenary, Ireland (which Modi visited last year) and New Zealand (which President Pranab Mukherjee travelled to just last month) sought the setting of criteria for NSG membership of non-NPT signatories before admitting India. Mexico and Switzerland joined Brazil in seeking the criteria parallel to allowing India membership. While the position Ireland and New Zealand took was tougher, the emphasis by all five of these countries on laying down criteria meant the NSG would first need to decide on these norms - effectively derailing any hopes of an immediate decision on New Delhi's membership. None of the five countries had backtracked from commitments. India had just missed subtle signals that could have prepared it for Seoul, officials who are now reviewing what happened at the plenary, diplomats from three countries that want riders with New Delhi's membership and independent analysts have told The Telegraph. "If we don't get desired results, we only redouble our efforts," foreign ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup said on Sunday, conceding that India had expected better results from the Seoul meeting. "Some processes take a little longer. I would place the NSG membership application in that category." Apart from China, no country in the NSG opposed India's membership at the Seoul plenary. But each country's approach was shaped by its own history and expectations. Institutional resistance to admitting a non-NPT signatory was an underlying thread for every NSG member that sought criteria before allowing India membership - even in cases where a country's leader had made clear his government would back New Delhi. Brazil had reluctantly signed the NPT in 1998 - the year India last conducted nuclear tests - because it was told unambiguously that it could otherwise not join the NSG. Brazil opted to sign the NPT despite officially calling it discriminatory - echoing India - only to gain access to the nuclear trade. For India to gain NSG membership without signing the NPT would raise questions in Brazil about that country's historic foreign policy choices. But India has not had any high-level interaction with the country's new leader Michel Temer since he took over from former President Dilma Rousseff - not even a phone call from Modi. Modi had sought Ireland's support for NSG membership when he visited Dublin in September 2015. "I have now sought Ireland's support for India's membership of the NSG and other international export control regimes," Modi had said then at a joint media conference with Irish Prime Minister Enda Kennedy. "India's membership will deepen our bilateral cooperation and strengthen international non-proliferation efforts." But Kennedy never committed to unconditional support for India's membership, even though he appeared favourable to India's bid in his conversation with Modi. President Pranab Mukherjee visited New Zealand in early May, and sought the country's support for India's bid. But in Wellington, he did not receive any clear-cut response though New Zealand made clear it supported India's non-proliferation credentials more broadly. Earlier this month, Modi visited Switzerland and appeared to have secured clear support. "We have promised India support in its efforts to become a member of NSG," Schneider-Ammann had said in a public statement after meeting the Indian Prime Minister. But at the meeting, Switzerland also emphasised how dearly it held the non-proliferation treaty, signalling that it would need to demonstrate some restraint even while supporting India. In Mexico City, Pena Nieto drove Modi to a restaurant for dinner as both countries tried to highlight commonalities - they are both leaders who come from simple backgrounds and governed important provinces before taking over nationally. But Pena Nieto's commitment to "positively and constructively" support India's NSG bid carefully left out any specifics of what Mexico meant by those adjectives. The joint statement the foreign ministries of India and Mexico had negotiated did not include any mention of the NSG. Instead, the statement said the countries "continue promoting the shared goals of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation".