Neighbourhood Watch: Why A Politically, Economically Weak Pakistan Is Not Good For India And The World

India is closely watching the developments in Pakistan even as concerns mount that an increasingly volatile situation in that country may give rise to security challenges for New Delhi.

Protesters burnt tires and other materials to block roads as the supporters of former PM Imran Khan and his political party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf held a protest against his arrest, in Peshawar on May 9, 2023.

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New Delhi: The unprecedented chaotic situation in Pakistan may not augur well not only for that country but it will also have repercussions for India and the subcontinent as well as the world, with terrorists outfits getting empowered there, multiple sources told ABP Live. According to the sources, India is “closely monitoring” the developing situation unfolding there, even though India has not yet officially given any reaction to the forced arrest of former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan inside the Islamabad High Court on Tuesday by the National Accountability Bueau (NAB) over the Al-Qadir Trust case.

The chaos and rioting that followed immediately after Khan’s arrest “should not be allowed” to spiral out of control, especially at a time when economically also the country is undergoing an unprecedented period, the sources said.

With the ongoing protests and riots across Pakistan, India is worried that infiltration may increase as these riots will give a freehand to the terror outfits operating out of that country such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohamed (JeM) and Hizb-ul Mujahideen (HuM), which are mostly focussed on Kashmir, top-level intelligence sources told ABP Live.

Terrorist activities have been on a gradual rise in Jammu and Kashmir again. In less than 30 days, Indian Army soldiers were killed in two terror attacks in Poonch and then in Rajouri. The terrorists are believed to be equipped with under-barrel grenade launchers and assault rifles.

The Indian Army, the sources said, is believed to have activated its counterterrorism grid across J&K, especially in the dense forest areas where these terrorists are believed to be infiltrating from. The tenures of commanders deployed in counter-insurgency operations in the Valley is also expected to be increased.

The sources also said that India is concerned that the spillover effect of Khan’s arrest could derail the G20 meeting to be held in Srinagar on May 22-24.

“India’s prime security concern is China, but it can’t help but worry about growing unrest across its western border. If Pakistan experiences prolonged unrest and the state is in over its head, then this could threaten state cohesion,” Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director of the Asia Program and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Washington-based Wilson Center, said while speaking to ABP Live. 

He added: “A distracted and overwhelmed Pakistani state could give terrorists an opportunity to exploit, with impacts that could spill into India if India-focused terrorists are also empowered by chaos in Pakistan. We’re nowhere near that worst-case scenario point, but it’s important not to be complacent about the risks further down the road.”

Economically Weak Pakistan Not Feasible For India

On Wednesday, while videos of Khan being dragged by the Pakistani Rangers were beamed across the world, an important and disturbing development went relatively unnoticed. This was concerning a “warning” by Moody’s Investors Service that Pakistan runs the risk of running into default without the much-needed $1.2 billion bailout package by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as its forex reserves are fast depleting.

An economically weak Pakistan will once again resort to terror activities as its mainstay to “gain” global attention, the sources are of the view. Recently, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari held a meeting with Afghanistan’s Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, which was much publicised across the world even as they joined hands with China for enhanced political and business ties, the sources said.

Sharat Sabharwal, former Indian envoy to Pakistan, said the situation in Pakistan poses a challenge for India.

"This is a repeat of completely unconstitutional methods used all along in Pakistan. It could be one of the agencies who did this and the government was aware of such a move. In 2018, it was the Army which brought Imran Khan to power by tilting the electoral field in his favour and now they are against him,” said Sabharwal, who has also authored the book — India's Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship.

The veteran diplomat also cautioned: “If Khan remains in detention, there could be unrest in Pakistan and that will pave the way for a bigger crisis.”

Ayesha Siddiqa, Senior Fellow at the Department of War Studies in King’s College, London, and author of Military Inc., said it is the Pakistani military that has “hit back”.

“There shouldn't be any doubt that this was done by the Army. And this has been done to dilute the former Pakistan Prime Minister’s popularity among the masses. He will now be kept under detention while the Army chalks the next steps,” she added.

Meanwhile, Khan was indicted in the Toshakhana case on Wednesday, a day after the arrest.