First ABP-CVoter Survey For Rajasthan Projects Majority For BJP, Though Congress Vote Share Is Up
ABP News, in partnership with CVoter, conducted a survey to understand the mood of the people of Rajasthan ahead of the assembly elections in 2023.
ABP News C Voter Survey: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday (July 27) visited Sikar, Rajasthan, and laid the foundation stone for many development projects. He used the podium to take a jibe at the Ashok Gehlot-led Rajasthan government, clearly sounding the bugle for the poll campaign. Modi accused the Congress government in Rajasthan of looting people, and also lashed out at it over the various recruitment paper leaks reported from the state.
"In the name of running the government in Rajasthan, Congress has set up a 'loot ki dukan' in a 'jhooth ka bazar' (market of lies). The latest product of this 'loot ki dukan' is Rajasthan's red diary," Modi said. The jibe by the BJP leader came only after Gehlot's tweet accused Prime Minster's Office (PMO) of denying him permission to be present and speak on the occasion.
As the poll scene hots up in the desert state, ABP News and CVoter conducted a survey to understand the current ground situation in Rajasthan and found interesting results.
What Happened In 2018 Rajasthan Assembly Elections
The 2018 Rajasthan Assembly elections were important for the Congress. After a drubbing in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections and multiple electoral setbacks in the following years, a win in Rajasthan was projected as a hope for resurgence right ahead of the 2019 general elections.
In the 2018 Rajasthan Assembly elections, Congress registered an impressive victory, securing a total of 100 seats out of the total 200, comfortably touching the halfway mark. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under then Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, was only able to secure 73 seats. Smaller parties and independent candidates together managed to secure 27 seats.
ABP-CVoter Rajasthan Assembly Election Survey — Vote Share & Seat Range Projection
The numbers recorded in the first ABP-CVoter opinion poll on Rajasthan points towards an interesting outcome of the elections. The Congress is likely to gain more vote share this time, but may lose the poll battle by a considerable margin.
The ABP News-CVoter survey suggests that CM Gehlot's Congress will get 41% of the vote share, which is 1.7% better than their performance in the 2018 Rajasthan assembly election when they finished just one seat short of majority. However, the improved numbers on this front will not help the Congress as the BJP appears set to surpass its 41%, registering a vote share percentage of 45.8% — 7 percentage points more than what it got in 2018, according to the ABP-CVoter survey. The BSP, which had 6 MLAs in the last outing, could lose ground further as their vote share percentage is projected to be shrinking to 0.7%.
As per the latest ABP-CVoter survey, the BJP is projected to win between 109 and 119 assembly seats. BJP's minimum seat projection is well above the majority mark of 101 assembly seats in Rajasthan. The Congress, meanwhile, is projected to get 78 to 88 seats in the legislative assembly. The survey does not give much hope to the BSP, with a seat projection of zero to two.
A Surprise In Rajasthan, Or Is It?
The buzz in the political circles so far, as far as Rajasthan elections are concerned, had been more or less of a mixed results, or rather tilted a little in favour of the Congress, for the simple reason that the BJP does not have a clear CM face in the state. While Vasundhara Raje has been a local favourite, which even this ABP-CVoter Survey has shown, her party has not yet officially declared her as the CM candidate. Media reports have been saying the BJP leadership's biggest challenge in Rajasthan is to unite the state unit with infighting continuing even after the party changing the president and the leader of the opposition. Raje has been staying away from BJP events. The Congress, which was also sailing the same boat till recently, meanwhile managed a patch-up between CM Gehlot and Sachin Pilot right before the party getting into the campaign mode.
The ABP-CVoter survey's findings, therefore, could come as a surprise to many as the "united" Congress was being given an edge. However, the results also indicate the wheel of changing government in Rajasthan since 1967 is not likely to come to a halt in this term too, which means the Congress losing should not be a surprise, after all.
Methodology
This poll is based on CVoter Pre-Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide and represents all segments.
Time frame: 26th June - 25th July
MOE (Margin of Error)
Sample Size of Opinion Poll (Seat Range and Vote Share - Rajasthan): 14085 respondents
Sample Size of Snap Poll (Rajasthan): 1885
LS Seats Covered – 25
VS Seats Covered – 200
MOE +/- 3% to +/- 5%
Confidence Level – 95%
Disclaimer: [Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.
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