ABP Expert Exit Poll: Caste Equations, Development Work Could Favour Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary In Tarapur
Government schemes and increased female voter turnout further solidify the BJP's position, overshadowing the Mahagathbandhan candidate's support within his own community.
As Bihar’s election season heats up, political experts and local journalists predict a comfortable win for the BJP in Tarapur, citing caste alignments, development work, and legacy politics in favour of Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary.
According to Rajesh Kumar, Bureau Chief of Hindustan, Tarapur has long been shaped by caste dynamics, but Samrat Choudhary’s focus on development has shifted the tide. “He frequently visited the area by helicopter to review projects and ensured their quick completion, from roads and bridges to the four-lane highways connecting Sultanganj to Deoghar and Tarapur to Bengal, as well as plans to link Tarapur by rail,” Kumar said. He added that the support of the Bind community and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s backing has further strengthened the BJP’s position, making victory “almost certain.”
Legacy, Caste Support Strengthen BJP’s Position
Rajneesh Kumar of Dainik Jagran echoed this view, noting that as a local candidate and Deputy Chief Minister, Samrat Choudhary enjoys strong backing from the Kushwaha community, which has traditionally dominated the constituency. “The Bind community joining the BJP, along with BSP’s support, has consolidated the caste arithmetic. Even the Rajput community, initially distant, turned in BJP’s favour after Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s rally,” he said.
Rajneesh added that Samrat Choudhary’s political legacy, inherited from his father Shakuni Choudhary, continues to benefit him. The Mahagathbandhan’s candidate Arun Sah of the Vaishya community reportedly received only about 40–50% of community votes, with the rest going to the BJP. “BJP is likely to win by a margin of 20,000 to 25,000 votes,” he predicted.
Development and Welfare Schemes Prove Decisive
Rana Gauri Shankar, Bureau Chief of Prabhat Khabar, said the seat has been a BJP stronghold since 2005, when Shakuni Choudhary first won it for the RJD before aligning with the NDA later. “Since then, the Kushwaha community has largely retained the seat. The inclusion of Bind voters and BSP’s support has made the BJP’s position even stronger this time,” he said.
Tripurari Mishra of Dainik Bhaskar agreed that Tarapur remains a legacy seat for Samrat Choudhary, crediting him for accelerating development in the area. “This time, women voters turned out in larger numbers, most of whom supported the NDA. Government schemes such as the ₹19,000 pension hike and electricity benefits have also played a crucial role in securing the BJP’s edge,” Mishra added.
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