ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll: Understanding UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa & Manipur | Key Takeaways

ABP NEWS CVoter: With seat projections, vote share percentage, and ground assessment done over a period of time, ABP and CVoter present the key findings of the latest opinion poll.     

ABP CVoter 2022 Election Opinion Poll | File Image: Getty

New Delhi: With the Election Commission announcing the dates for polling of five states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur), political parties are going full throttle to woo voters, even though some campaign restrictions are in place.

To understand the mood of the voters ahead of the 2022 assembly election, ABP News teamed up with CVoter to conduct opinion polls in the poll-bound states. With seat projections, vote share percentage, and ground assessment done over a period of time, ABP-CVoter have come out with the key findings of the latest opinion poll.     

ABP NEWS CVoter Opinion Poll January | Key Takeaways Of Uttar Pradesh

1. Samajwadi Party (SP) and its allies led by Akhilesh Yadav have made a remarkable recovery, from an actual 23.6% share of votes in the 2017 UP assembly election to a projected 33.5% as per the latest CVoter opinion poll numbers available on January 6, 2022. Even a few months ago, the CVoter poll tracker was shaping the SP+ at well below 30%. However, having said that, the tracker also exposes the upper circuit that the SP alliance has been unable to breach. In their best possible upswing, they could not breach the 35% mark which was critical to bring the BJP down. Seems the swing from BSP to SP+ has saturated and now Akhilesh Yadav will have to work on the 7% odd votes that are parked with Congress to swing towards SP+ if he wishes to breach the 35% mark.

2. The BJP, at a projected vote share of 41.5% in the latest ABP News-CVoter Survey, seems to have maintained its vote share of 41.% won in the 2017 UP assembly election even in the latest projections. In fact, throughout the long-drawn poll tracker conducted by CVoter since 2021, the projected BJP vote share has not fallen below 40%. 

3. This 8% difference in vote share will probably prove to be the decisive factor during the actual UP assembly elections 2022; with the BJP led alliance projected to win 229 seats. That’s 96 seats less than the 2017 UP assembly election, but a comfortable simple majority nevertheless.

4. The virtual absence of Mayawati and the BSP from being a serious contender in the race is startling for her supporters. The BSP vote share is projected to fall from the actual 22.2% in the 2017 UP assembly election to a projected 12.9% in the 2022 UP assembly election.  

5. One reason for this could be what analysts and pundits were saying about the impact of the farmers' agitation on BJP’s fortunes, particularly in western UP. There were reports from the ground that the Jats and the Muslims could bury the memories of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots and vote for the SP-RLD combine. The CVoter poll tracker shows that the projected vote share of BJP in the region is 41.2%, far ahead of the projected 33% for the SP-RLD combine.

6. Despite Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi's brave efforts and imaginative slogans like “Ladki Hoon, Lad Sakti Hoon”, along with myriad promises of welfare schemes, she doesn’t seem to be able to stop the decline of the Congress party in the state. The Congress vote share is projected to increase marginally, while the number of seats could decline from 7 in the 2017 UP assembly Polls to 5 in the UP assembly election 2022.

ABP NEWS CVoter Opinion Poll January | Key Takeaways Of Uttarakhand

1. The most interesting aspect of elections is the choice of who is the preferred chief minister. Veteran leader and former chief minister Harish Rawat of the Congress with 37% backing him is miles ahead of the incumbent chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami who gets the support of approximately 29% of the voters. The numbers for Rawat have grown continuously since late 2021 from 30% as his starting point. It is rare for an incumbent chief minister to trail so far behind an opposition leader, but given the rapid change of 3 CMs within a year by the BJP this is hardly surprising.

2. In normal circumstances, this should have led to a comfortable victory projection for the Congress in Uttarakhand. But the ABP News Cvoter Opinion Poll has consistently shown the fight to be an extremely close one with both parties literally running neck and neck. The BJP is projected to win 34 seats in the 70 member assembly while the Congress is projected to win 33 in the upcoming state assembly election.

3: There can be no doubt that the BJP has gone through a big-time erosion in voter support in the state. In the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections, BJP had won 46.5% of the vote share. It is projected to fall by 8% in the 2022 Uttarakhand assembly election. It had won 57 seats in the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly election. While ABP-CVoter's latest Opinion Poll projects BJP to go down by 23 seats in the 2022 Uttarakhand assembly election.

4. There seem to be many contenders for the top post in the BJP with Baluni, Koshiyari, General Khanduri, and Satpal Maharaj getting meddling to decent support from the voters. The frequent changes in chief ministership seem to have confused the voters. But if you add up their numbers, the grand total of BJP candidates as the CM choice is ahead of Harish Rawat.

5. Without the Aam Aadmi Party factor, it is possible that Congress could have comfortably won Uttarakhand. The ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll clearly shows that the AAP is getting a large chunk of anti-BJP votes, apart from creating its own new base of voters like it seems to be doing in Goa. The AAP had a zero vote share in 2017 since it did not formally contest elections. But for the 2022 assembly elections, it is projected to get a vote share of 12.9%. As is known, a vote share below the threshold of 15% doesn’t translate into many seats. So the AAP is projected to win just 3 seats. The more important point is, in how many seats will ensure a Congress loss.

ABP NEWS CVoter Opinion Poll January | Key Takeaways Of Punjab

1. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress are projected to poll 40% and 36% votes respectively in the latest ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll. AAP is in pole position as far as the race of Punjab is concerned. Despite the lead in vote share, AAP may just fall short of the majority due to the regional distribution of voter-base. Also, Congress is benefiting from its Mayawati moment by installing the first Dalit CM in the state, it is consolidating its hold over Dalit voters.
 
2. Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal)’s projected vote share has declined by 2% from the last round, it is expected to poll 18% vote share and may win around 20 seats in Badal family strongholds. Currently, it seems to be out of the reckoning for Chandigarh, but the party’s performance will most certainly act as the tiebreaker between AAP and INC.

3. Captain Amarinder Singh and BJP alliance does not seem to be adding up to anything significant. Currently, the vote share (2.5%) and seat share (2 seats) of the grouping are projected to remain in the lower single digits. However, the alliance’s performance may influence the fate of around 30 seats.

4. Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is preferred by 29% Punjabis as CM in 2022 polls, interestingly this number corresponds to the rough headcount of the Dalit population in Punjab. Congress President Sidhu is preferred by only 6% of voters. Arvind Kejriwal is preferred by 17% of voters and Sukhbir Singh Badal is the choice of 15% Punjabis. The Surprise of the pack is Bhagwant Mann who has shot to a 23% approval rating in the latest round-up from 13% in the last round. If AAP declares him as the CM face, this could consolidate his numbers further as the total support for Kejriwal and Mann is almost 10% more than CM Channi and 5% more than CM Channi and Navjot Siddhu put together.

5. Therefore, the three X factors that will ultimately decide the Punjab verdict 2022 are as follows
a. The relative sweep of AAP and INC in their respective strongholds
b. The performance of Akali Dal and its potential impact on AAP and INC
c. Ability of Captain Amarinder Singh to dent the prospects of INC

ABP NEWS CVoter Opinion Poll January | Key Takeaways Of Goa

1. BJP is projected to have a simple majority in Goa Vidhan Sabha 2022 with a 32% vote share. AAP is projected to emerge as the main opposition party with a 23% vote share and erstwhile prime contender INC is projected to poll just a little more than 19%vote share. It is clear from the vote shares that Goa is heading for a split verdict that could eventually lead to the advantage of the BJP.

2. Stemming the vote and seat erosion faces in the last few rounds of the tracker, the BJP has started to consolidate again in Goa. Currently, BJP is projected to win 21 seats just ahead of the halfway mark of 20 seats. AAP is the surprise of the pack and is expected to win 7 seats, higher than the 6 seats projected for the INC.

3. If AAP is currently doing well without a face, will it stand to gain from projecting a strong leader? The question is better answered by the static trend of seats and votes in Goa for AAP. An absence of strong leadership is perhaps impeding the galvanization of more voters in their favour.
 
4. The much-talked-about entry of Mamta Banerjee’s TMC is likely to be a non-starter. Its alliance with the MGP is still struck with approx. 8% vote share, with almost 5.5% saying their support for MGP and hardly 2.5% expressing their support for the TMC. The fact is that the popularity of MGP head Sudin Dhavalikar has come down from 8% to 5% in recent months after declaring his alliance with TMC.

ABP NEWS CVoter Opinion Poll January | Key Takeaways Of Manipur

1. Manipur is a close contest and over successive rounds of ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, two salient trends have been observed 
a. BJP and INC are locked in a close battle. They are projected to poll 36% and 33% vote share respectively
b. BJP has led over the INC consistently albeit with a wafer-thin margin

2. The trend observed so far seems to be crystallizing and the BJP’s edge has withered over the INC from the previous round of tracker. It is currently expected to win 25 seats while INC is close on the heels with 24 seats. The Naga ethnic party NPF is expected to mop up 4 seats and “others” could tag around 7 remaining seats.

DISCLAIMER: The present opinion poll/survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 89536+ across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 12th December 2021 to 8th January 2022. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.