OPINION | India’s Fighter Dilemma: The Debate Continues

The Indian Air Force is awaiting the finalisation of a mega Rafale deal estimated at Rs 3.25 lakh crore, even as its fighter squadron strength remains below the required level.

The acquisition, estimated at USD 39 billion, is aimed at bolstering the Indian Air Force's capabilities.

Source : PTI

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Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• IAF awaits 110 Rafale jet deal finalization by 2027.
• Private firms compete for Rafale production, HAL exclusion sparks concerns.
• Critically low squadron strength exacerbates China-Pakistan threat.
• India lags in fifth-generation fighters; AMCA development stalled.

As the decades long wait for the IAF for new fighter jets has been promised to end by the beginning of next decade, the force waits impatiently for price negotiation to conclude for the acquisition of 110 Rafale combat jets by the end of current financial by March 2027.

 

The Indian military aviation community is wondering when will be the Indian partner for the local manufacture or assembly of 92 Rafale jets would be finalised, as there is intense competition likely to unfold to grab the “deal of the century” or “mother of all deals” estimated by MOD to be around Rs 3,25,000 crores ( around USD 39 billion) The three companies in the race are the Tata Advanced Systems Ltd(TASL), Mahindra Aerospace and Adani Defence and Aerospace.

Since choice of Indian partner is restricted to private sector conglomerates and Indian public sector HAL has been kept out, the French partner Dassault Aviation has to take into account which Indian group possess the best existing infrastructure to be able to immediately begin production of Rafale jets so as to meet the IAF targets of 10-12 Rafales each year from the beginning of next decade. Initial first lot of 18 Rafales are to be supplied from France made in the Dassault facility.

However, the commencement of this production hinges on the finalization of a comprehensive contract between the The Dassault Aviation, the Indian government and the chosen private sector partner, which remains uncertain at this stage.

HAL's Exclusion Raises Questions Over Contract Timeline

The exclusion of HAL from this monumental deal has already sparked objections from various political factions, raising concerns about potential political controversies that could arise from such a significant procurement. The implications of these objections may lead to delays in the contract execution process, potentially inviting judicial scrutiny and parliamentary debates.

Such developments could further complicate the timeline for the delivery of the 110 Rafale jets, casting doubt on whether the project can adhere to its established schedule. As the aviation community watches closely, the uncertainty surrounding the selection of the Indian partner and the subsequent contract negotiations continues to fuel apprehensions regarding the timely realization of this critical defense acquisition.

IAF Squadron Strength Falls To 29 Against Projected 42

The Indian Air Force is currently navigating a pivotal phase in its history, striving to maintain a strong image despite a diminishing fleet of fighter aircraft. Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh has emphasized that the Air Force is not "weak," echoing the sentiments of General V.P. Malik during the Kargil conflict, who stated that the Army would fight with whatever resources it had.

The outgoing Chief of Air Staff acknowledged the concerning squadron strength, which stands at 29, significantly below the projected 42, while expressing hope for the annual induction of 32-34 new fighters, although no timeline for these additions was provided.

China-Pakistan Threat And The Need To Strengthen Air Power

Events such as Air Force Day and the recent international air exercise Tarang Shakti serve as platforms to underscore the government's hesitation in finalizing orders for modern fighter jets. This indecision poses a risk, as India must deter potential pre-emptive strikes from adversaries. While India possesses some defensive capabilities, they are limited and insufficient to address multiple threats simultaneously.

The current geopolitical landscape presents challenges from both China and Pakistan, with the potential emergence of a third front in Bangladesh, necessitating a strategic deployment of air-combat assets.

To safeguard critical regions like the Siliguri corridor, which is strategically significant and vulnerable to Chinese ambitions, the Indian Air Force must enhance its operational readiness. As the IAF grapples with its current limitations, the urgency for decisive action in bolstering its fighter fleet becomes increasingly clear.

From The MMRCA Contest To The 36 Rafale Deal

The Kargil War highlighted the potential vulnerabilities of the Indian Air Force (IAF), particularly in the absence of an aerial escalation that could have pitted it against Pakistani F-16 fighters, for which it was inadequately prepared. In the aftermath, concerns regarding the diminishing squadron strength of the IAF prompted the Ministry of Defence (MOD) to issue a Request for Proposal (RFP) for 120 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) in 2007.

This initiative led to extensive flight trials involving six prominent fighter jets, with the European Typhoon emerging as the best bidder and the French Rafale following closely behind. However, due to budget constraints and political considerations, the decision was deferred by the then government led by Manmohan Singh, ultimately falling to Narendra Modi's administration, which negotiated the procurement of only 36 Rafales from France. The specific contributions of these aircraft during Operation Sindoor remain undisclosed by the IAF.

Operation Sindoor And The Limits Of India's Air Combat Capabilities

While the success of Operation Sindoor deserves recognition, it is crucial to contextualize this achievement within the framework of a brief four-day conflict, during which Pakistan had the opportunity to assess India's air combat capabilities.

Additionally, China's involvement, albeit limited, resulted in the failure of its HQ-9 air defense system to protect Pakistani air bases, underscoring its shortcomings. Notably, China refrained from deploying its advanced fifth-generation fighters, the J-20 or J-35, despite commitments to supply the Pakistani Air Force with at least two squadrons of these aircraft.

India's Fifth-Generation Fighter Gap And The AMCA Programme

India currently faces a significant shortfall in its air combat capabilities, lacking both fifth-generation aircraft and sufficient numbers of 4.5-generation fighters. The prospect of introducing any fifth-generation fighter into the Indian Air Force (IAF) appears bleak in the near term, with the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) projected to enter production only by the middle of the next decade, and its development seemingly stalled.

The Indian government is contemplating an appealing offer from Russia to produce the fifth-generation Su-57 at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), which possesses a portion of the necessary infrastructure.

This arrangement could expedite the license production of a domestic fifth-generation aircraft through technology transfer. India already has very good experience of locally producing Sukhoi-30s , over 270 of which is now the mainstay of IAF. However, the Ministry of Defence remains hesitant to pursue this opportunity.

IAF's Fighter Jet Dilemma Amid China's J-20 And J-35 Induction

Amid uncertainties regarding the delivery timelines of Rafale jets and the status of the LCA Mk-2 and AMCA, the IAF is grappling with how to enhance its combat capabilities in light of the Chinese PLA Air Force's advancements, including the induction of fifth-generation J-20 and J-35 fighters near the Indian border.

The strategic community expresses concern that without prompt action, the IAF may find itself in a precarious situation reminiscent of the Kargil conflict, unable to effectively counter threats from neighbouring nations.

The Road Ahead For India's Air Combat Capabilities

The ongoing dilemma faced by the Indian Air Force (IAF) regarding its fighter aircraft capabilities is likely to remain a topic of intense discussion and analysis within strategic circles until a satisfactory resolution is achieved. This complex issue encompasses various factors, including technological advancements, budgetary constraints, geopolitical considerations, and the evolving nature of aerial warfare.

As stakeholders engage in this discourse, the urgency for a decisive course of action becomes increasingly apparent, particularly in light of regional security dynamics and the imperative to maintain air superiority. The outcome of these deliberations will not only shape the future operational readiness of the IAF but also influence broader defense strategies and international relations in the region.

(Ranjit Kumar is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst)