ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll Reveals First Projections For Congress, BJP Faceoff In Rajasthan Election
ABP News-CVoter Survey: As per the first projections, Rajasthan is likely to maintain its trend of changing the State Government every five years which has been going on since 1998.
ABP News-CVoter Survey: ABP News-CVoter’s (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) first opinion poll on Thursday revealed projections for the upcoming Rajasthan Election which is slated to take place later this year. The ABP-CVoter survey tried to gauge the mood of the state on key matters that would impact the voters' lives. As per the first projections, Rajasthan is likely to maintain its trend of changing the State Government every five years which has been going on since 1998. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is predicted to secure a comfortable majority in the forthcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections.
The ABP News-CVoter survey was conducted between June 26 to July 25 among 14,085 adult participants across Rajasthan. It shows that BJP is likely to win 109 to 119 seats with a vote share of 45.8%, while the incumbent Congress (INC) Government is predicted to win 78 to 88 seats with a vote share of 41%. The BSP is projected to secure 0-2 seats with a vote share of 0.7% and ‘Others’ are predicted to win 1-5 seats with a 12.5% vote share.
ABP News-Cvoter Opinion Poll: Rajasthan Voters On Key Poll Issues, Modi Govt, Favoured CM Face, & More
During the ABP News-CVoter poll in Rajasthan, the respondents were also asked about some of the issues in the State and the country. One of the important questions posed was about their preferred choice of Chief Minister.
To this, 35% of respondents favoured incumbent CM Ashok Gehlot (INC), 25% favoured BJP leader Vasundhara Raje, 19% favoured Sachin Pilot (INC), 9% voted for Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, 5% voted for Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore (BJP) while 7% voted for ‘Others’ as their preferred choice for CM.
When asked about the most important issues faced by its people, 28% of respondents said it is the issue of ‘Rising Prices’ while 27% said it is ‘Unemployment’. This was followed by ‘Corruption’ (10%), ‘Family Income/Poverty’ (6%) and other issues like ‘Electricity, Road, Water, Population, and Agriculture’. (29%).
The people of Rajasthan were asked if they are satisfied with the works of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Union Government, 45% of respondents said that they are ‘very much satisfied’ while 32% said that they are ‘satisfied to some extent’. 21% said that they are ‘not at all satisfied’ with the works of the Modi Government.
On how satisfied they are with the work of PM Modi, 55% of respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’ with his work. 27% said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’ whereas 17% said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.
ALSO READ | ABP News-CVoter Survey: Gehlot Scores Over Vasundhara Raje As CM Choice In Rajasthan
Similarly, people of Rajasthan were asked about the performance of the State Government, 39% of respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’, 36% said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’ and 24% said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.
ABP News-CVoter also conducted a Snap Poll in the state. As per the Snap Poll outcomes, 76.5% of BJP voters said they believe that PM Modi’s visit to Rajasthan on July 27 and 28 will help the BJP in the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly Elections, while 18.1% of BJP voters said that it will not help the party to win the elections. On being asked the same question, 39.6% of Congress voters said that PM Modi’s visit will help the BJP to win the elections while 50% of Congress voters did not agree with the same.
When asked if BJP should project CM’s face in Rajasthan: 61.7% of BJP voters said ‘Yes’ while 27.5% replied ‘No’. On the same question, 46.7% of Congress voters said ‘Yes’ and 34.8% opined ‘No’.
Asked about the favoured CM face from the Congress in the forthcoming elections, 54.7% of Congress voters favoured Ashok Gehlot, 28% favoured Sachin Pilot and 13.5% said they favour neither Ashok Gehlot nor Sachin Pilot. On this question, 33.3% of BJP voters favoured Ashok Gehlot, 30.9% favoured Sachin Pilot and 28.1% said they neither favour Ashok Gehlot nor Sachin Pilot as Congress’s CM face.
Reacting to the recent announcement made by the Congress that its two leaders – Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot will contest the elections unitedly, respondents were asked if this pact can be a masterstroke for the ruling party. To this, 37.1% of BJP voters said ‘Yes’ and 41.8% opined ‘No’. On the same question, 58.6% of Congress voters said ‘Yes’ while 23.1% replied ‘No’.
In the ABP News-CVoter Snap Poll, the participants were also asked if they think that the Ashok Gehlot-led Government's scheme to provide cooking gas cylinders for Rs. 500 to the beneficiaries of Ujjwala Yojana and BPL card holders will help the grand old party in the Assembly elections. To this, 39.1% of BJP voters said ‘Yes’ whereas 52.6% said ‘No’. While 67.6% of Congress voters believe that this scheme will help their party win the elections. However, there are 23.7% of Congress voters believe it won’t help the ruling party.
Methodology
This poll is based on CVoter Pre-Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide and represents all segments.
Time frame: 26th June - 25th July
MOE (Margin of Error)
Sample Size of Opinion Poll (Seat Range and Vote Share - Rajasthan): 14085 respondents
Sample Size of Snap Poll (Rajasthan): 1885
LS Seats Covered – 25
VS Seats Covered – 200
MOE +/- 3% to +/- 5%
Confidence Level – 95%
Disclaimer: [Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.
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