Oil Prices Slip As OPEC+ Output Hike Plans Offset US-China Trade Deal Optimism

Analysts said traders were juggling multiple market signals, balancing renewed trade optimism against the prospect of rising supply.

OPEC+, which includes members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is considering another modest output hike in December.

Source : Freepik

Global oil prices slipped slightly on Tuesday as optimism around a potential trade breakthrough between the United States and China was offset by reports that OPEC+ may move to increase production later this year. 

Meanwhile, investors remained cautious, assessing the impact of fresh sanctions imposed on Russia.

OPEC+ Weighs Production Boost

Brent crude futures edged down by 3 cents to settle at $65.59 a barrel around 9:30 AM, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by 5 cents to $61.26, reported Reuters.

 Analysts said traders were juggling multiple market signals, balancing renewed trade optimism against the prospect of rising supply.

“Traders weighed up progress in US-China trade talks and the broader outlook for supply,” ANZ said in a morning note.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the news agency revealed that OPEC+, which includes members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is considering another modest output hike in December. The alliance had previously cut production for several years to stabilise prices, but began reversing those cuts in April.

Trade Talks Bring Hope, But Market Caution Persists

Market sentiment was also buoyed by the anticipation of a potential US-China trade agreement. The world’s two largest oil consumers are set to see their leaders, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, meet in South Korea on Thursday. 

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said Beijing hoped Washington could “meet it halfway” to pave the way for constructive dialogue.

The renewed diplomatic engagement between the two economic giants raised hopes of a demand recovery for crude oil, which had been weighed down by global economic uncertainty and trade tensions over the past year.

Sanctions on Russia Add Another Layer of Complexity

Adding to the market’s mixed mood were new sanctions from Washington targeting Russian oil majors, including Lukoil and Rosneft, in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The sanctions marked the first major move against Russia’s energy sector during Trump’s second term. 

Following the move, Russia’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, announced plans to sell its international assets, a significant shift in the country’s corporate landscape.

Despite the headlines, market analysts noted that the immediate impact of these sanctions on oil supply would likely be limited. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), commented that while sanctions on key oil exporters could push up crude prices, the effect would be tempered by the industry’s surplus production capacity.

Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Questions

Last week, Brent and WTI futures recorded their strongest weekly gains since June, spurred by geopolitical developments and tightening inventories. However, analysts at Haitong Securities noted that the new sanctions would have only a short-term effect, with oversupply expected to continue putting downward pressure on prices.

The combination of OPEC’s cautious output expansion, evolving US-China trade dynamics, and sanctions-driven geopolitical risks has created a complex environment for traders. 

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