What Lies Ahead For Arvind Kejriwal And AAP As Delhi Services Bill Becomes Law

File photo of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi greeting Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal during a joint press conference after the opposition parties' meeting in Bengaluru in July 2023.

Source : PTI

The passage of the Delhi Services Bill was inevitable in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha. But it was remarkable how the opposition's alliance, the newly formed I.N.D.I.A. bloc, stood firm in an unprecedented show of unity against the bill across both Houses. While the new law will make Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party tougher, this was the first successful show of strength by the opposition. Most importantly, the way the Congress stood with the AAP against the Bill sent a strong message about the opposition unity.

It is evident that the AAP's future politics will change drastically now. First, it will be difficult for the party to take on the Congress in a big way. Second, Kejriwal will have to rethink his Delhi model of governance because, with this law in place, the Centre through the Lieutenant Governor will literally rule Delhi. Third, Kejriwal will have to demonstrate his loyalty to the opposition alliance. And fourth, the AAP will have to rebrand itself as an anti-corruption party.

AAP's Past Strategy Towards Congress

After the central government passed the ordinance concerning Delhi's services, Kejriwal had reached out to the Congress for support. But when he did not receive a favourable response, the Aam Aadmi Party launched a vicious attack against the Congress. But things changed later. Political analysts in India who have witnessed the rise of the AAP from its inception with Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement had never imagined that the Congress would one day stand so firmly alongside the AAP both inside and outside of Parliament. Incidentally, August 16 marks 12 years of the day when the then Congress government had Anna Hazare placed under "preventive detention" and then arrest hours before he was to begin an indefinite hunger strike demanding a strong anti-corruption Lokpal Bill.  

According to AAP and Congress insiders, the grand old party's support for Arvind Kejriwal was a result of former UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi's personal intervention. Another section of Congress leaders also assumes that party president Mallikarjun Kharge took the initiative to form an alliance with the AAP.

At this point, Kejriwal's first challenge is the expansion of his party and making inroads in states including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Haryana, among others. In each of these states, the BJP's primary adversary is the Congress, and the AAP's entry will only serve to weaken the grand old party. The AAP has already eliminated the Congress's voter base in Delhi and Punjab, and weakened it in Gujarat. But the present situation, with opposition unity at stake, puts AAP in a position where it needs to change its anti-Congress stance.

Even in Delhi and Punjab, Kejriwal will need to soften his approach towards the Congress when the opposition bloc sits down for seat-sharing talks. The state units of Delhi and Punjab have already protested the decision to join forces with the AAP, and hence it will not be a straightforward endeavour for the Congress as well. However, it is a positive development for the opposition that the AAP has already declared its willingness to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Gujarat in coalition with the Congress.

The Shaky Future Of Delhi Model

At this juncture, Arvind Kejriwal must recognise that it is time for the AAP to reconsider its Delhi model of governance. The national capital will be administered by the Central government with the assistance of the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi with the Delhi services law in place. The ongoing conflict between the LG and Arvind Kejriwal may be part of the AAP's political strategy, but it will impede the party's ability to serve the state effectively. One cannot overlook the potential repercussions this power struggle may have on the party's capacity to effectively govern the state. In a move that is bound to have far-reaching consequences, the actions being taken have the potential to not only undermine the tireless efforts of Kejriwal but also impose significant constraints on the party's operational capabilities within the confines of Delhi. The recurrent issues that have plagued the region are likely to be further exacerbated by these developments. In the realm of political strategy, time has come for Kejriwal to broaden his horizons and shift his attention beyond Delhi.

As a seasoned leader and the CM of Delhi, Kejriwal has undoubtedly made significant strides in transforming the city's political landscape. However, in order to truly cement his legacy and make a lasting impact on the Indian political stage, it is imperative for him to venture into uncharted territories.

In a strategic move that couldn't have come at a better time, the party has shifted its attention towards the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD). In this opportune moment, Kejriwal finds himself at a crossroads, contemplating a more prominent position in the realm of national politics. While the AAP may redirect its attention towards Punjab, the stage is set for Kejriwal to seize a more active role on the grander political canvas. According to the AAP leadership, there is a prevailing belief that the Supreme Court of India may ultimately dismiss this law. However, it is also true that there is a distinct likelihood of the court choosing not to intervene in the intricacies of this legislation. In this situation, it would be unwise to postpone formation of a solid political strategy.

Question Of Loyalty

During his speech in both Houses of Parliament, Home Minister Amit Shah warned the opposition that Kejriwal would quit the alliance as soon as the Bill was passed. The AAP is a junior political party in the opposition alliance, and has never had any alliances in the past. Kejriwal has fewer political allies in India because since the AAP's inception he has targeted the vast majority of top politicians who are now substantial members of the opposition alliance.

From Sharad Pawar to Lalu Prasad Yadav, besides Congress leaders, Kejriwal has spared none. However, in 2023, months prior to the general elections of 2024, the political climate in India has drastically changed. Kejriwal has realised that the AAP cannot currently fight alone and capture a significant number of seats. It is now a test of Arvind Kejriwal's loyalty, as the opposition parties have already demonstrated their support for it both inside and outside of Parliament. Every single I.N.D.I.A. bloc member spoke against the Delhi services Bill. If Kejriwal fails to remain with this alliance, the AAP's political future will be at stake because the opposition parties will never trust him again. It will be fascinating to watch Kejriwal's debut in coalition politics.

Anti-Corruption Image Makeover

Since he founded the AAP, Kejriwal has emphasised anti-corruption as his sole ideology. Significantly, Home Minister Amit Shah attacked the AAP on the issue of corruption in both Houses of Parliament. Shah and the Bharatiya Janata Party have almost succeeded in portraying Kejriwal as a corrupt politician. In the past year, the Kejriwal government has faced numerous allegations of corruption. Former deputy CM Manish Sisodia is incarcerated for his alleged involvement in corruption with regard to the now-repealed excise policy of Delhi. Former health minister Satyendar Jain was also in jail on alleged corruption charges, and the Delhi CM himself is under scrutiny for allegedly renovating his official residence at a much higher cost than was necessary, among other charges. If Kejriwal is unable to restore the party's reputation in terms of its anti-corruption stance, the AAP's credibility and political future will suffer an irreparable damage. 

The author is a visiting faculty of journalism, a political columnist, and a doctoral research scholar.

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