Third Covid Wave Close To Impossible Unless There Is Major Mutation: Experts

“Unless a major mutation happens and altogether a new coronavirus emerges, there is no possibility of the third wave”, said Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil.

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New Delhi: The anticipation for the third wave of coronavirus began to grow especially after daily cases from the second wave started to decline, experts now believe that the third wave is highly unlikely even though the global reinfection rate is high at 1%. 

This is because only 5% of the population infected during the second wave were reinfection cases i.e. people who were infected by the virus the first time around.

Factors for a third wave

“The virus strain which was found in India has infected so many to an extent that with the present immune profile of people the third wave is impossible,” Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil, a noted epidemiologist told Outlook India during an interview. 

Experts believe the prevalence of infection during the second wave has been so high among people in many cities like Delhi and Mumbai that even at this rate of reinfection, the third wave is not possible.

Although he added, “Unless a major mutation happens and altogether a new coronavirus emerges, there is no possibility of the third wave”.

Dr Sanjay Rai, President of the Indian Public Health Association (IPHA) told Outlook that three factors play a role in any wave of an infectious disease. 

“A susceptible host, a virus, and an environment are three factors vital to decide a wave. The second wave came because not only the virus mutated and became more infectious but a large population was susceptible to infection as well,” Dr Rai told Outlook. He believes that the second wave has decreased that susceptibility to a great extent.

Third-wave and children

Another fear surrounding the third wave is that it is highly likely to infect children more. Dr. Randeep Guleria AIIMS-Director said that there is no data, either from India or globally, to show that children will be seriously infected in any subsequent Covid-19 waves. 

Noting that 60 per cent to 70 per cent of the children who got infected and got admitted in hospitals during the second wave in India, had either comorbidities or low immunity, the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) Director said that healthy children recovered with mild illness without need for hospitalization. He added that "it is a piece of misinformation that subsequent waves of the Covid-19 pandemic are going to cause severe illness in children".

Guleria during a media briefing said that one of the reasons behind a wave can be human behaviour and according to IANS cautioned that "whenever cases increase, there is a fear in people and human behaviour changes. People strictly follow Covid appropriate behaviours and non-pharmaceutical interventions help break the chain of transmission. But when unlocking resumes, people tend to think that not much infection will happen and tend to not follow Covid appropriate behaviour".

Due to this, the AIIMS chief said, the virus again starts spreading in the community, leading potentially to another wave.

"If we have to stop subsequent waves, we need to aggressively follow Covid appropriate behaviour until we can say that a significant number of our population is vaccinated or has acquired natural immunity. When enough people are vaccinated or when we acquire natural immunity against the infection, then these waves will stop. The only way out is to strictly follow Covid appropriate behaviour," Guleria added according to IANS.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has mentioned its plans to conduct a serosurvey to check the level of general anti-body among people but it hasn’t made a formal announcement from when it would be started and what all areas it would cover.