Opinion poll gives jolt to BJP-SAD: With 49-55 seats, Congress likely to emerge as largest party in Punjab

New Delhi: In the upcoming Assembly elections, due early next year, the Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Punjab. The grand old party may win 49-55 seats, according to the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll. However, the party tally is still a few seats short of a simple majority in the 117-member state Assembly. Arvind Kejriwal's, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), on the other, may end as runners-up with 42-46 seats. If we talk about the vote share, Congress may command a third of Punjab's votes (33%) and the AAP will trail at 30. Meanwhile, the ruling coalition of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is likely to end. They may get only 17 to 21 seats as per the opinion poll. In terms of vote share, BJP-SAD alliance may get 15% of the votes. Around 76 % of the participants also agreed that the drug menace is a major problem the state is facing. Interestingly, 80 % blamed politicians for not being able to control the mess. It may be recalled that a few months back, a movie, Udta Punjab, also depicted this serious problem of the state. The Opinion poll also stated that around 22 % votes that had gone to the BJP-SAD alliance in the past 2012 elections have shifted to the Delhi CM's AAP. The 19 % votes shifted to the Congress. In all 117 constituencies, the opinion poll surveyed 6,552 people. SOMETHING ABOUT UPCOMING PUNJAB ELECTIONS: As per the reports, the Congress will fight the elections under the leadership of Amarinder Singh. The party has also hired poll strategist Prashant Kishor for campaigning. The Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also expecting some gains in the state election. Being the fourth largest party in Punjab, after improving its vote share in 2012 elections, it started preparations for 2017 Assembly elections a bit early by launching Punjab Bachao Abhiyaan from 1 November 2014. Aawaaz-e-Punjab, the new party formed by ex-BJP leader Navjot Singh Siddhu and others is expected to give some competition to the other parties. The elections will most probably be held in January 2017 and the results are likely to be announced in March 2017. CASTE AND RELIGION DATA (As per the 2011 census): 57.69% of the Punjab's population follows Sikhism, making it only Sikh-majority state in India. 38.5% of the population is of Hindus. Muslims are 1.93%, Christians 1.3%, Buddhists 0.12% and Jains, 0.16%.