Gujarat Polls: Will Morbi Tragedy Affect BJP? Will AAP Dent Congress? Here Is What ABP-CVoter Survey Found

Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been won by the BJP for a record six consecutive times.

Gujarat CM Bhupendra Patel and PM Narendra Modi

Source : PTI

The Morbi bridge collapse, in which 136 people died, is unlikely to have any impact in the upcoming Gujarat Assembly election and the BJP will comfortably defend its western fortress, revealed the latest survey conducted by ABP-CVoter in November.

The Gujarat Assembly polls will be held in two phases on December 1 and December 5. Results will be announced along with Himachal polls on December 8.

Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been won by the BJP for a record six consecutive times but this time they are up against an aggressive AAP and a new look Congress under its president Mallikarjun Kharge.

In fact, the survey has revealed that as many as 47 per cent of the voters felt AAP's entry would affect Congress the most and cut into their votes. Around 37 per cent were of the opinion that BJP would stand to lose due to AAP, which has promised several freebies and "Delhi education model".

As per the survey, about 56 per cent of responders were of the opinion that BJP would return to power for the seventh time in Gujarat. About 20 per cent felt new player AAP would upseat the Bhupendra Patel-led government while only 17 per cent gave a chance to the Congress.

In the 2017 polls, the BJP won 99 seats and Congress 77. Gujarat Assembly has 182 seats with 92 as the majority mark.

However, there is palpable anger against the BJP government among the people as well. About 43 per cent of responders said they were angry and wanted to change the government.  

The ABP-CVoter survey found that 33 per cent of those surveyed cited unemployment as the major issue in the upcoming polls.

About 18 per cent felt electricity, water and roads needed attention while nearly 15 per cent of the respondents felt the plight of farmers in Gujarat was the main issue.

National issues and security, which has been BJP's trump card in electoral campaigns, has been voted by the majority of respondents as the most important factor that might significantly affect the outcome of the polls. About 19 per cent felt religious polarisation would dictate which party would form the government.

Bhupendra Patel has been backed by 33 per cent of responders to become the next chief minister of Gujarat. Interestingly, even though AAP has not projected any chief ministerial face, 21 per cent of voters prefer a candidate from the party to be the next CM.

Former CM Vijay Rupani, who was replaced by Patel in 2021 reportedly to beat anti-incumbency, is the third preferred choice.

In terms of the performance of the BJP government in Gujarat, 44 per cent have rated it "good". About 39 per cent of those surveyed are pleased with CM Bhupendra Patel's performance.

Interestingly, an overwhelming 65 per cent of responders have given their approval to the performance of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India.

[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 22807 across Gujarat. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]