Will Caste Census Issue Boost Oppn's Chances In 2024 LS Polls? What ABP-CVoter Survey Found

ABP Lok Sabha Chunav Survey: The caste survey issue gained momentum after the Bihar government conducted its own survey and increased reservation for OBCs, STs and SCs.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and NCP chief Sharad Pawar at the Opposition protest at Jantar Mantar

Source : PTI

Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Opposition and Congress have made caste census as one of their poll planks in a bid to woo the OBC voters and stop the Modi juggernaut. However, the experiment did not pay dividends for the Congress in the recently held Assembly polls, where it lost in the three Hindi heartland states.

Now, a survey by ABP-CVoter has found that a majority of voters feel that making caste census an issue would not benefit the opposition in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Around 46.4 per cent of respondents said the caste survey issue won't benefit the Opposition while 36.8 per cent replied in the affirmative. Around 17 per cent declined to give an opinion. An age-wise breakup of the data showed that majority of those in the 18-24 age bracket (45 per cent) felt the issue would bring gains to the Opposition. However, those in the 25 - 34, 35 - 44, 45 - 54 and 55+ age group said it was not a major issue in the polls and won't give an advantage to the Opposition.

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Among the social groups, a majority of Muslims (48 per cent) and Sikhs (43 per cent) opined that the survey issue will benefit the Opposition. However, if seen overall, the balance was tilted towards those who replied in the negative. The other social groups inlcuded Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Upper Caste Hindus, OBCs and Christians.

The caste survey issue gained momentum after the Bihar government conducted its own survey and increased reservation in government jobs and educational institutions for OBCs, SCs and STs.

While at the national-level BJP voiced its opposition to the survey, the party supported the exercise at the state level. While campaigning in the recently held Assembly polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi repeatedly harped that  youth, women, farmers and poor were the "the biggest castes" for BJP.

[Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level Vote Share projection with 95% Confidence interval.]