Imran Khan — Unstoppable Phenomenon Or Just A Euphoric Gust?
Pakistan is at a dangerous political crossroads. The military is unwilling to let go of their hold over the State of Pakistan, while former prime minister Imran Khan stares into their eyes challenging the authority of the establishment itself. Since its creation, Pakistan stands at the weakest ebb ever. The economy is on the verge of collapse, sub-nationalism is on a steady rise, and radical Islam growing in strength exponentially — all these factors are threatening the very nature of the State.
As its economic crisis deepens, the public in Pakistan struggles to survive on a daily basis, with inflation at a record high of 24.9 per cent. Economic stress is now manifesting as protests. In the last few weeks, demonstrations have been witnessed across the country against the fuel price adjustment and taxes on the electricity bills, as reported by Dawn.
Amid this crisis, Imran Khan has managed to galvanise the masses to the narrative of corruption and the military’s political adventurism. People are now convinced that it is through the interference of their military in politics and subversion of other institutions of Pakistan by the generals, that the country is facing an existential economic crisis.
Ever since 1947, the Pakistani military has played a pivotal role in shaping the country’s destiny. Out of the 75 years, they have directly ruled for over 30 years under various military dictators. However, the Pakistan military never lost its hold even when civilian governments were in power. They had been successful all the while in managing the domestic and international environment skillfully. Generals used Islam, Kashmir and terrorism to their geostrategic advantage. They managed to extract billions of dollars in Western aid. Pakistan prospered on the borrowed economy. So far, this economic model has worked.
But not anymore.
Disquiet Within Pakistan’s Military Elite
Pakistan is no more a frontline state for the West. With geopolitical relevance diminishing and an aid-based economy without sustainable growth engines, the country is collapsing fast.
The grip of the military appears to be loosening. People on the streets are hailing Imran Khan as a messiah as he gives considerable empirical reasoning to this crisis that Pakistan is going through. As the drama unfolds there is a sense of disquiet within Pakistan’s military elite. Never ever have they felt so uncertain.
It can well be argued that Imran Khan was a creation of the military to counter the growing strength of former leader Nawaz Sharif. Nawaz’s gravest mistake was that he had crossed the red line of challenging Rawalpindi, a reason enough for his nemesis.
Today, as things stand, PM Shehbaz Sharif’s government backed by the establishment is in a dilemma over Imran Khan. As he openly challenges the authority of the establishment, they are left with very limited options. If they arrest Imran Khan, Pakistan is set on fire, and if they do not arrest him, he sets Pakistan on fire. An experiment in the cantonment’s laboratory has threateningly turned towards them, Imran Khan stares into their eyes as an unstoppable phenomenon.
The Birth Of Politician Imran Khan And His PTI
Imran enjoyed a flamboyant, playboy image as a cricketer, who went on to lead the team that won the 1992 World Cup for Pakistan. No one had ever thought he would be the prime minister of Pakistan one day.
In the nineties, Pakistan was dealing with some serious corruption issues and complex international relations. Every party in Pakistan, in opposition or in power, was accused of graft. Imran Khan saw this as a political vacuum in the theocratic state. He started to work towards filling this gap.
Imran Khan established Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in 1996. His Left-leaning political outfit tasted victory for the first time in 2002 with one seat. All through his political journey, he was guided by the desire of serving his people and providing a clean political alternative to Pakistan.
His desire to serve society and the poor in him was not inbred. It all happened after he lost his mother Shaukat Khanum to cancer in 1985. Struck by the tragedy, Khan built a cancer hospital in Lahore in her name and it was completed in 1994.
Soon after his mother’s demise, Imran started to turn religious.
As a budding leader later, he always believed that Pakistan was bending before the US and global financial institutions like the IMF. He was always critical of the military and the establishment of their political role in the country.
Imran Khan had keenly watched the constantly changing political scenario since 1977. He observed that all the elected governments succumbed to the military due to corruption charges against them. This gave the military a cover-up in overpowering the governments.
It is not that the military governments were not corrupt, but no one dared to question them. They were bestowed upon the holy duty of defending Pakistan and were hence unquestioned. Any such act was considered an attempt to weaken the army and aiding “archenemy India”. This is legally deemed anti-national in Pakistan, bearing dire consequences.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s birth can be accredited to the corrupt ecosystem of the military-centric establishment comprising the generals, bureaucracy, judiciary and the feudal vadaras. People gradually started showing signs of tiredness and were fed up with every regime — be it civilian or military. This trust deficit was filled by the PTI which came into existence with a promise of corruption-free governance.
Imran Khan came to power by defeating Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN in the 2014 general elections. He was accused of stealing the vote with the help of the ISI and the army. Massive rigging was reported at many places. Imran Khan came to be known as a selected PM and not a fairly elected one. The Pakistan army drew a lot of flak for meddling in politics behind the curtain. The people of Punjab fiercely stood behind Nawaz who was popularly known as the lion of Punjab.
Lacking administrative and political acumen, Imran remained at loggerheads with all the political parties. He labelled them as corrupt and held them responsible for the sorry state of the country. Imran Khan lost his chair to a no-confidence motion. The united opposition group, the People’s Democratic Movement led by Shehbaz Sharif, dethroned Imran Khan and Sharif became the PM. It is alleged that the military played a vital role in creating a favourable environment for the opposition to dislodge Khan.
Imran Khan had purportedly fallen out with GHQ, Rawalpindi, on issues of foreign policy, namely future relations with India and the US. There were strong divergent views on the CPEC investments by the Chinese. The Pakistan military played by the blue book and did what they have been doing always since the beginning: political puppetry.
Imran Vs Pakistan Army
As Pakistan stands today, Imran Khan is the most popular leader in Pakistan.
The PDM has failed to provide relief to the public and the economy is in a spiral dive. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party has won all byelections and local elections in KPK, Punjab and Karachi.
Imran targets the military for their interference in politics and holds them directly responsible for all the ills. His narrative is well received in public.
Pakistan has witnessed anti-establishment sentiments like never before.
The helicopter crash in Balochistan killing six individuals, including Corps Commander XII Corps Lt Gen Sarfaraz Ali, witnessed a sense of no regret or rather jubilation among Imran’s supporters.
This change is in stark contrast to the generally accepted character of the people of Pakistan who have always rallied behind their army.
Imran Khan has been able to sell a dream that Pakistan can become a prosperous and self-respecting nation only if he is at the helm of affairs. He hints at a paradigm shift in the ways Pakistan is governed.
Ill-timed comments of Shehbaz Gill asking soldiers and young officers to disobey orders or rebel was not out of nowhere. This comment could highly be an effort to test the waters. The fact of the matter is that there exists a strong support base for Imran within the army. General Qamar Bajwa had recently warned his men to keep away from politics. Wary of Khan’s popularity within, the army was a divided house. It is this support base for Imran within the ranks and file of the army that the establishment is seriously concerned about. The generals are compelled to exercise utmost restraint in dealing with the Imran factor.
Pakistan's police have charged the former PM under anti-terror laws. Their investigation comes after he accused the police and judiciary of detaining and torturing a close aide.
Will Imran Khan be stymied or will he push Pakistan into greater political instability and civil turmoil? Only time will tell if Imran Khan is a phenomenon unstoppable or if he is just a euphoric gust.
The author is a defence expert, columnist and author. He is an associate editor with Indian Defence Review and a consultant with ABP News.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
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