Kamala Harris Vs Donald Trump: 6 Reasons This Razor-Close US Election Could Swing Either Way

US presidential election 2024 between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is extremely close, with polls showing a deadlocked race. The outcome of this razor-close contest could go in either director.

Republican candidate Donald Trump (left) and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris (right) are locked in a fiercely close race, with pollsters predicting an extremely close contest on the eve of the US election.

Source : PTI (modified)

US Elections 2024: As the US begins in-person voting for the 2024 presidential election, the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is proving to be a nail-biter. According to the latest NBC News poll, the contest is deadlocked at 49% for each candidate, with only 2% of voters still undecided. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have pulled nearly even in polls, leaving the outcome highly uncertain. 

Here are six reasons why this razor-close contest could swing in either direction:

1. Trump Holds The Power Of Being Out Of Power  

The economy has surged as the top issue for American voters, and despite low unemployment and a strong stock market, high prices and inflation have left many feeling worse off than they were four years ago. Trump’s question to voters, “Are you better off now?” resonates amid rising living costs. After Covid-19, inflation hit levels unseen since the 1970s, sparking dissatisfaction with the current administration and fuelling a desire for change. Voters worldwide have often turned against incumbent parties post-pandemic, and this sentiment could work in Trump’s favour.

2. Trump's Resilience Against Scandals  

Despite numerous controversies — including fallout from the January 6 Capitol riots, multiple indictments, and even a criminal conviction — Trump’s support remains stable at 40% or higher. This resilience suggests that his core supporters are unfazed by the headlines. Many of Trump’s loyalists echo his claims of a political “witch hunt”, seeing his legal battles as evidence of his outsider status. For undecided voters, Trump’s portrayal of himself as a victim of political targeting might be persuasive enough to tip the scales in his favour.

3. Trump's Sharp Focus On Immigration  

While Democrats are banking on the issue of abortion to mobilise their base, Trump is emphasising illegal immigration — garnering greater voter trust, according to polls. As encounters at the US-Mexico border reach record numbers and states far from the border feel the impact, Trump’s hardline stance has gained traction, including with Latino voters. This shift could play a decisive role in the outcome, as immigration remains a deeply emotive issue with a broad impact on communities across the country.

4. Kamala Harris Is Neither Trump, Nor Biden 

While Trump has numerous advantages, his polarising nature is a double-edged sword. He lost to Biden in 2020 despite record voter turnout, with millions more Americans voting for Biden. Harris has emphasised Trump as a threat to democracy, branding him a “fascist” and a destabilising force. Polls show that Americans overwhelmingly view the country as spiralling out of control, and Harris hopes to position herself as a stabilising alternative to Trump. With President Biden stepping out of the race, Harris has rejuvenated the Democratic base. While Republicans tie her to Biden’s policies, Harris’s campaign has shifted to fresh messaging, side-stepping issues tied to Biden, like age. Ironically, it’s Trump now facing questions about his age, as he seeks to become the oldest president ever elected.

5. Kamala Harris Is A Champion Of Women’s Rights  

With Roe Vs Wade overturned, abortion has become a pivotal issue. Harris’s pro-choice stance resonates strongly with voters who back abortion rights — a key factor in recent elections, especially the 2022 midterms. In 2024, ballot initiatives on abortion in ten states, including Arizona, could increase voter turnout in her favour. Additionally, Harris’s historic candidacy as the first woman running for president could further galvanise female voters.

6. Harris Raised Substantial Funds, And Has More Reliable Voters   

Kamala Harris has raised substantial funds since becoming the Democratic candidate, surpassing Trump’s fundraising efforts since January 2023. With twice as much spent on ads, her campaign is flooding swing states with messaging that could sway undecided voters. In a race this close, Harris’s spending power could make the difference. On top of that, she has a support base that includes highly reliable voter groups — college-educated individuals and older Americans — who historically turn out in higher numbers. Trump, on the other hand, polls well with groups that are less likely to vote, like young men and non-college-educated voters. A New York Times/Siena poll found that Trump leads among people who were registered but did not vote in 2020, which may hinder his turnout.

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