Taliban A Strategic Liability For Pakistan Now, Making Af-Pak Region More Unstable. How This Will Impact India
The way Taliban mocked Islamabad recently showed the snake Pakistan reared in its backyard has begun to bite the master. There are fears security situation in Af-Pak region will get more unstable now.
The snake reared by Pakistan in its backyard has begun to bite the master. The way the Taliban recently mocked its creator has not only stunned the international strategic community, but also raised concerns that this will deepen the already unstable security situation in the Af-Pak region. A little more than a year after taking over Afghanistan, the Taliban have upped the ante against Pakistan. They reacted strongly when Pakistani Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah warned of a military action against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Afghanistan in a public warning. Taking to Twitter, Afghan Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Yasir warned Pakistan that his country was the graveyard of proud empires.
Warning not to think of a military attack against Afghanistan, Yasir’s tweet along with a photograph of a Pakistan army general signing the instrument of surrender in Dhaka, reminding Pakistan of the humiliating defeat at the hands of the Indian Army in the 1971 war. Yasir warned that there will be a shameful repetition of the military agreement with India.
د پاکستان داخله وزیر ته !
— Ahmad Yasir (@AhmadYasir711) January 2, 2023
عالي جنابه! افغانستان سوريه او پاکستان ترکیه نده چې کردان په سوریه کې په نښه کړي.
دا افغانستان دى د مغرورو امپراتوريو هديره.
په مونږ دنظامي يرغل سوچ مه کړه کنه دهند سره دکړې نظامي معاهدې د شرم تکرار به وي داخاوره مالک لري هغه چې ستا بادار يې په ګونډو کړ. pic.twitter.com/FFu8DyBgio
Pakistan retaliated two days later, with a series of air attacks on TTP hideouts inside Afghanistan, though this was not acknowledged publicly by any of the two sides. Later, the Afghan defence ministry said it would protect the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity at all costs.
The Taliban were indebted to the Pakistani army for helping reinstall their regime by supporting their violent confrontation with the US and NATO troops for two decades. But tension started to emerge between Pakistan and the new Taliban regime only a few months after the takeover of Kabul. First the Taliban refused to recognise the Durand Line, the internationally recognised border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The line drawn by the British in 1893, which cuts through the Pashtun dominated tribal areas, has become the bone of contention between the two neighbours.
Taliban’s audacity to challenge the Durand Line has shocked Pakistan, which played a major role in facilitating the 2020 US-Taliban deal. Pakistan has also supported the Taliban regime since it returned to power on August 15, 2021. In fact, when the Taliban took control of Kabul, Pakistan former PM Imran Khan said Afghanistan had broken the “shackles of slavery”. The international community has, meanwhile, accused Pakistan of facilitating the return of the Taliban, which believed that the Afghan Taliban would be used as a “strategic asset”.
But the Taliban is now becoming a strategic liability for Pakistan. Due to recent spat over various bilateral issues, and because of international pressures, Pakistan has not yet recognised the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
The Rising Threat Perception For Pakistan
Interestingly, the “deep state” in Pakistan had planned to use Taliban-led Afghanistan as a “strategic depth”. But the Taliban seem to have converted the supposed “strategic depth” into “strategic- hideouts” of anti-Pakistan extremists group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan has several times accused Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers of providing a safe haven for the TTP, though Taliban leaders strongly refute these allegations. Pakistani forces have several times tried to cross the boundary to tackle TTP, but Afghanistan fervently opposes these cross-border raids.
The Pakistani military establishment appears to be getting jittery over fears of rising threat perception, as TTP has been able to launch several successful suicide attacks against the Pakistani military and government facilities and high profile public places like five-star hotels. TTP claims to have launched 59 attacks in November and 30 in December at various locations. Due to these threats, the Islamabad-based embassies of the US and several other countries were compelled to advise their citizens and embassy staff not to visit five star hotels like Marriott.
TTP, which is accused of killing Benazir Bhutto in 2007 and shooting over 140 school children eight years ago, has spread its tentacles over the whole of Pakistan, presenting a huge security challenge to the Pakistani security establishment. Pakistan, which is already in a state of flux because of worsening economic crisis and deepening political instability, is facing an existential crisis. The present coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is too weak and powerless and lacks political will to confront the TTP and other extremist groups head-on. The reality is that the foot soldiers of these extremist groups have been nurtured by the Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI. Pakistani leaders describe them as freedom fighters and the Taliban as “good terrorists”. In contrast, TTP was described as bad terrorists.
Pakistan’s Dillema And Implocations For India
The dilemma Pakistani security establishment is facing is the merger of these “good terrorists” with “bad terrorists”, who are posing a direct threat to the survival of Pakistan as a nation state. The TTP wants to establish a Sharia regime in Pakistan, similar to the Taliban regime in Kabul. TTP has a dominant presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan and is reported to be once again extending its writ in the Swat valley of Pakistan.
In fact, there is ideological affinity between Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Taliban. Both are described as brothers in arms. Even US officials bought these nomenclatures of good and bad terrorists to promote Afghan Taliban. The fears expressed by Afghan watchers before the return of the Taliban to Kabul are proving to be true. Afghanistan is once again likely to become a hotbed of terrorism. The killing of Al-Qaida chief Ayman Al-Jawahiri in Kabul is proof enough that the international terrorist gang is relocating to Kabul. Islamic State (Khorasan), the rival ultra-extremist group able to operate with impunity, is also posing a direct challenge to the Taliban. The manner in which Islamic State (K) has been able to successfully launch big strikes in capital Kabul is an indicator of its ground strength and following in the country. Besides Islamic State, there are scores of other smaller jihadi groups operating in the war-torn country.
These developments have strong security implications for India. It is feared that the Pakistan-based anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad etc may relocate their bases to Afghanistan, which can be used as “strategic depth” to avoid any Balakot-like surgical air strike against them. Af-Pak region is thus strewn with various opposing and like minded terrorist groups, which can get reenergised and extend their tentacles to India, where several sleeper cells of ISI-supported terrorist groups are already reported to be active.
The author is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal.]
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