Priyanka Gandhi Vs PM Modi In Varanasi? Why It's Not A Bad Idea, Though A Big Political Risk For Congress

Some in the Opposition camp believe Priyanka Gandhi should contest the Lok Sabha elections against PM Narendra Modi.

Source : PTI

Sanjay Raut, spokesperson of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, has suggested that Priyanka Gandhi should contest from Varanasi, and if she does she can actually defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi who currently represents the Parliamentary seat that he won with huge margins in 2019 and 2014. The statement has caused sensation in political circles with some Congress supporters, like Acharya Pramod Krishnam, taunting Raut and suggesting that Uddhav should instead contest as being the son of 'Hindu Hridaysamrat' Bal Thackeray he could also beat Modi. 

Congress's new Uttar Pradesh president Ajay Rai said if Priyanka wishes to contest from Varanasi, party cadre will work to ensure she wins. Meanwhile, BJP asserted that there is no vacancy in Varanasi. 

There has been a lot of speculation whether Priyanka will contest the Lok Sabha elections or not, and if yes from where. Her husband Robert Vadra also said recently that he wants to see her in Parliament, and that she deserves a place there. 

The party is divided over the same. While some want her to contest from Uttar Pradesh, which could rejuvenate the party’s prospects in the Hindi heartland, others want her to assume the role of star campaigner and conduct rallies and roadshows throughout the country, drumming up support for the party. 

Contesting the Lok Sabha could restrict here to one seat, they feel. It is rumored that Priyanka may contest from Rae Bareli, currently represented by Sonia Gandhi who may not contest in 2024 due to falling health. There are also talks thay she may even contest from Amethi if Rahul decides to fight only from Wayanad, or even the family bastion seat of Sultanpur.

What Are Priyanka's Chances If She Contests From Varanasi? 

PM Modi is sitting pretty in Varanasi with 64% vote share and 4.8 lakh victory margin in 2019. The SP and the Congress, contesting separately, bagged around 3.5 lakh votes while Modi got 6.75 lakh votes. So, this is the minimum vote Priyanka could get if she becomes the candidate of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. Varanasi is in Purvanchal, the region where the BJP suffered losses in both the 2019 general electitons and the 2022 state elections, as shown in the table below. In the 2019 elections, the BJP lost 6 seats to Mahagathbandhan of SP, BSP and RLD in this region.

In 2022, the SP-led alliance (even without BSP), gained 38 seats in this region as it formed an alliance of small caste-based parties like Mahan Dal, a faction of Apna Dal, and OP Rajbhar’s SBSP. It also received a boost with the entry of senior OBC leaders from the BJP, like Dara Singh Chauhan and Swami Prasad Maurya. 

This region has a good presence of lower/most backward OBCs. So, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc has a good base here, which should give confidence to Priyanka. However, some of the architects of SP’s good performance in the region, OP Rajbhar and Dara Singh Chauhan, are now back in the BJP camp. 

Raut may be known for his tall claims and sensational statements that grab headlines, but it is not a wrong strategy to put up a symbolic fight from here and showcase it as an NDA versus I.N.D.I.A. ideological battle and show the voters what all INDIA stands for.

If Priyanka indeed fights from here, the Congress could hope to pin down PM Modi to one seat, or may force him to at least reduce some of his rallies and time he would devote to campaigning elsewhere. The proponents of this theory believe that leaders should not be afraid of losing elections, and Priyanka should take up this challenge. 

If this strategy is followed, Priyanka will need to contest from another safe seat. If she loses, BJP could play it out that her career is finished. It may sink before it takes off, and these are risks she needs to be aware of. 

Priyanka is already being criticised for leading the Congress to the lowest tally of two seats with a meagre 2.33% vote share in UP. She has already resigned as general secretary in-charge of Uttar Pradesh. The opponents of Priyanka-contesting-from-Varanasi theory believe she should be utilised somewhere else, like in the south and the west where the Congress party’s chances are brighter. 

The Congress needs to also keep in mind that Modi could make it a kaamdaar-versus-naamdaar contest, and put the party on the backfoot. He has already highlighted dynasty politics as one of the top three challenges the country is facing. All in all, it's not an easy decision for the Congress whether to field Priyanka Gandhi from Varanasi in the high-stakes 2024 Lok Sabha election. 

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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