Turkey Elections: Key Players In May 14 Presidential Polls And What’s At Stake For Erdogan

Although there are four presidential candidates, political observers believe the electoral battle will whittle down to President Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of main opposition CHP.

(Clockwise from top left) President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan. ( Image Source :Getty Images )

With the crucial Turkey elections drawing near, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is bracing up for the biggest challenge in his two-decade rule. As the country grapples with skyrocketing inflation and tries to rebuild itself after the devastating February earthquakes, the incumbent president is seeking votes to stay on for another five years in office.

Although there are four presidential candidates for the May 14 elections, political observers believe the electoral battle will eventually whittle down to President Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of main opposition People’s Republican Party (CHP) and the joint candidate of the six-party National Alliance.

Four Presidential Candidates In Turkey Elections 

Recep Tayyip Erdogan 

The 69-year-old leader, who has been at the helm of Turkish politics for the last 20 years, is set to face the biggest test in the upcoming elections. After leading the country for the last two decades, the aftermath of the recent earthquakes and the sky-high inflation has put a dent in his popularity. 

According to reports, although Erdogan still has consolidated power under his presidency, many Turks now want a change.

“Simply blaming Erdogan for everything that is wrong in Turkey won’t cut it. Past elections have shown that Erdogan is a phenomenal campaigner, but recent remarks suggest he has lost his popular touch and his ability to connect with voters,” news agency Reuters quoted a political expert as saying.

The key concerns for the voters this time are Turkey’s crippling economy and the damage that the earthquakes have left in its wake. According to World Bank data, the country’s broad money supply rose by about three and a half times between 2014 and 2020 while the supply in the US rose by around 50% during the same period causing the value of Turkish Lira to drop against the dollar. 

Moreover, the debilitating February earthquakes killed at least 45,000 and rendered millions homeless. According to a CNN report, the immediate damage was estimated at $34 billion.

At this juncture, voters are on the lookout for a leader who could manage such disasters better, and opinion polls show the chances of Erdogan being re-elected are slim.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu 

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, the leader of main opposition People’s Republican Party (CHP), is the joint opposition candidate for the Presidential elections. Although the “Table of Six” is an awkward coalition of six parties from the left, centre and right wings of Turkish politics, they have put forward a single candidate with a desire to replace Erdogan.

“One major failure why the opposition was unable to unseat Erdogan in the past related to its failure to act as a united opposition. This time around, the opposition has been able to set up a large coalition that includes six political parties,” a report by the National Public Radio quoted a political expert as saying.

Notably, the contrasts between Kilicdaroglu and the incumbent president are clear, with the former leading Turkey’s main secular opposition party, Republican People's Party and Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, or AKP, having Islamic roots.

Muharrem Ince 

This 58-year-old former physics teacher is another presidential candidate for the May 14 elections. Before he founded his own party, the "Homeland Party", Ince had a history of representing the People’s Republican Party, and ran for the presidential post in the 2018 elections. 

In his stint as the presidential candidate, he bagged 30 percent of the votes and lost to Erdogan, whose Justice and Development Party received 53 per cent votes. 

Ince’s passion was teaching before he took to active politics. He graduated from Uludag University (now Balikesir University) and worked as a physics teacher and was also the principal at various high schools.

Ince was elected as CHP deputy chairman and he served the position from June 2010 to August 2014. However, the cracks in his relationship with CHP began to show after the 2018 poll drubbing. Following the 37^th CHP Convention, Ince announced his new party and formally resigned from CHP in January 2021.

Sinan Ogan 

This 55-year-old former academician will run as the presidential candidate of ATA Alliance. ATA Alliance is a block of four parties – Zafer Party, Adalet Party, Ulkem Party, and Türkiye İttifakı Party – known for their nationalist ideologies.

Ogan began his political career in the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in 2011. Although initially he was on good terms with MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, after the latter started supporting Erdogan’s policies, Ogan joined other nationalist figures to oppose his leadership.

After becoming a deputy of MHP in 2011, Sinan Ogan was a member of the Türkiye-Albania and Türkiye-Nigeria Parliamentary Friendship Groups. During his term, he also functioned as Secretary General of the Türkiye-Azerbaijan Parliamentary Friendship Group. However, in 2017, he was expelled from the MHP on allegations of "severe indiscipline toward the party chairman".

With the feeblest chance of winning the presidential elections this year, Ogan declared his presidency in March, without joining or forming another party.