Rajasthan Polls: Battling Factionalism And The 'Raje' Question, BJP Banks On Modi And MPs. A SWOT Analysis
Rajasthan Election 2023: BJP has not projected a CM face and is banking on anti-incumbency against Congress and the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to wrest back the desert state.
While the squabbling between Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Congress leader Sachin Pilot may have been out in the open, becoming the Congress's achilles heel, the BJP itself has been busy dealing with the many intra-party factions ahead of the polls. The perceived sidelining of two-time Vasundhara Raje, who has been the pivot of BJP's politics in Rajasthan for nearly two decades, has also led to disenchantment among her loyalists, leaving BJP a divided house.
However, this time the saffron party has not projected a CM face and is banking on anti-incumbency and the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to wrest back the desert state. The party has also fielded MPs in the poll battle. Will the formula work for BJP?
READ | Rajasthan Election 2023: Single Phase Polls On November 25. Check Poll Schedule
Rajasthan Election: Here is a look at what are the strengths, weaknesses and challenges before the BJP
Strengths
BJP, which has a strong organisational set up in Rajasthan, began preparing for the elections months ahead of the announcement of the schedule. The party was also first off the blocks to release its first list of candidates, fielding as many as seven MPs, including a former Union Minister in Rajyavardhan Rathore.
This time, the BJP has focused on balancing caste equations by prioritising the Gujjar and Meena vote bank as well as the Dalit voters. By giving tickets to Vijay Bainsla, son of Col Kirori Singh Bainsla, and MP Kirodi Lal Meena, BJP has aimed at wooing the Gujjar and Meena community, which have considerable influence in eastern Rajasthan.
Besides, BJP has also made an outreach to the Dalit community, with PM Modi and senior leaders repeatedly raising the issue of increasing atrocities against Dalits in the state. In the 2018 polls, Congress had won 19 of the 34 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs), who comprise nearly 18 per cent of the population.
To buttress its claim, BJP has highlighted NCRB crime figures, which revealed that the second highest number of Dalit atrocities happenned in Rajasthan in 2021.
Moreover, BJP, which has made it clear that it will not project any chief ministerial face, is banking on the popularity of PM Modi, who has visited the state more than 10 times in the past year. The saffron party is also hedging on the waft of developmental projects announced by the Centre.
Weaknesses
Factionalism runs deep in the Rajasthan BJP state unit. Factions headed by heavyweights such as Vasundhara Raje, Leader of Opposition Rajendra Singh Rathore, former state president Satish Poonia, state BJP chief CP Joshi, Union Minister Gajendra Shekhawat and MoS Arjun Ram Meghwal have been jostling for tickets for their loyalists.
The lack of cohesiveness has impacted BJP in the bypolls as well. Since 2019, BJP has lost to the Congress eight of the nine elections -- eight bypolls and one election to an Assembly seat. Among the bypoll seats the saffron party lost, two were held by BJP.
The issue of the stalled Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project, which will ensure water for drinking and irrigation in 13 districts, may also affect BJP is eastern Rajasthan. The Congress has alleged that the Centre was reluctant to accord ERCP "national project" status.
The project, proposed by the previous BJP regime, is propsoed to cover Jhalawar, Baran, Kota, Bundi, Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Tonk, Ajmer, Dausa, Karauli, Alwar, Bharatpur and Dholpur districts. BJP is considered weak in some of the districts and the issue may hamper its prospects more.
Opportunities
The BJP has focused on wooing women and youth for the upcoming elections. The BJP has reached out to women showcasing the benefits of the Women's Reservation Act, which aims to reserve 33 per cent seats for women in Parliament and state assemblies. At the same time, BJP has also reached out to youths amid a palpable anger over paper leak cases.
Rajasthan Election: Pre-Poll Surveys
Pre-poll survey by ABP-CVoter has predicted a BJP return to the desert state. The latest survey has indicated BJP would win anywhere between 127 to 137 seats. The majority mark for a party to form the government is 101.
BJP is likely to get around 46 per cent of the votes, a jump from the 38 per cent it received in the 2018 election. Congress is likely to bag between 59 to 69 seats, with a vote share of 42 per cent.
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