ABP-CVoter Survey: Congress Faces Desert Storm Over 'Red Diary'. How Will Gudha Episode Affect Gehlot?

ABP Rajasthan CVoter Survey: A 'red diary' has become the centre of attention and biggest suspense in Rajasthan. How will the episode impact Congress' chances in polls?

Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot and sacked minister Rajendra Gudha

Source : Getty/PTI

Months ahead of Rajasthan Assembly election, a "red diary" has become the centre of attention and biggest suspense in the state. Last week, sacked Rajasthan minister Rajendra Gudha claimed he had a "red diary" containing details of financial irregularities involving Chief Minister Gehlot and others and waved it while he was entering the Assembly.

Days before the incident, Gehlot had sacked Gudha after he criticised his own government in the Assembly over crime against women.

Now, a survey by ABP-CVoter has found that nearly 60 per cent of the respondents feel the "red diary" episode would harm the Congress in the Assembly polls. Around 40 per cent said the incident won't affect the Gehlot government.

READ | 'Nahi Sahega Rajasthan': PM Modi's All-Out Attack On Govt Over 'Red Diary', Crimes Against Women

However, the respondents were divided when asked if the move to sack Rajendra Gudha was right. Around 45 per cent of those surveyed said Gehlot was right in sacking the minister while 46 per cent opined that it was a wrong move.

The incident has gained traction in the Rajasthan political arena, with even Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during an event in Sikar, saying the "red diary" contained "dark deeds" of the Congress government and would  lead to its downfall in the Assembly elections.

"The 'red diary' is a fresh product of the Congress' 'loot ki dukan'. It is said that the 'dark deeds' of the Congress are recorded in the diary, which will defeat the party in elections in the state," PM Modi said.

Moreover, the survey has revealed that the "revolving door" trend would continue in Rajasthan and the BJP was likely to wrest back the state from Congress.

The survey showed the BJP may win anywhere between 109 to 119 seats while the Congress will bag 78-88 seats.

In terms of vote share, BJP will get around 45.8 per cent of the votes while Congress is likely to get around 41 per cent.

The Rajasthan state legislative Assembly consists of 200 members, with the majority mark of 101 seats. The Congress made a comabck in the desert state in the 2018 polls by winning 99 seats, while BJP secured 73 seats. The Congress then formed the government with the support of indepnedents.

Methodology

This poll is based on CVoter Pre-Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide and represents all segments. 

Time frame: 26th June - 25th July
MOE (Margin of Error) 
Sample Size of Opinion Poll (Seat Range and Vote Share - Rajasthan): 14085 respondents 
Sample Size of Snap Poll (Rajasthan): 1885
LS Seats Covered – 25
VS Seats Covered – 200
MOE +/- 3% to +/- 5%
Confidence Level – 95%

Disclaimer: [Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.