Karnataka Elections: All Eyes On JDS Today. Kingmaker If There Is Hung Assembly. But What If BJP Or Congress Gets Majority?

Karnataka election results 2023: JD(S) is all set to have the last laugh if there is a hung assembly. But the scenario will be different if Congress or BJP manages to get simple majority on its own.

File photo of JD(S) leader and former Karnataka CM HD Kumaraswamy at a roadshow ahead of Karnataka Assembly elections, in Channapatna, on May 8, 2023. ( Image Source :PTI )

Karnataka has decided. With over 72 percent people exercising their franchise on May 10, it's a matter of time before the verdict is known. While the Congress had opinion polls on its side, not all exit polls gave it a clear majority. Fighting anti-incumbency, the ruling BJP is not near the magic figure either. With the state staring at a hung assembly, the third player in the race, the Janata Dal (Secular), is hoping to become the kingmaker, with one of its leaders claiming Friday that both the BJP and the Congress had reached out to the party seeking support, as party leader and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy had predicted during campaigning.

The JD(S), a regional party with a strong base in Karnataka, is led by Deve Gowda and his son Kumaraswamy. It came to power in Karnataka twice, but has been out of office since 2019.

The party is said to be expecting over 30 seats to come to its kitty this time, and if certain reports are to be believed, Kumaraswamy is negotiating to become the chief minister in lieu of the party’s support — just like in 2018 when the Congress agreed to give up the top post in the bargain despite having more seats that the JD(S). The BJP had emerged as the single-largest party the last time, winning 104 seats. But the Congress managed to keep the BS Yediyurappa-led side away from power, albeit for only around a year, by forging a post-poll alliance with the JD(S).

This time around, most of the exit polls show the Congress in a position similar to what the BJP was in the last time — single-largest party but short of majority. In such a situation, it’s a game any one of the two national parties can win, albeit with some help from the JD(S). 

Former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s party definitely stands on strong ground in the case of a fractured mandate. 

However, the scenario will change drastically for the JD(S) if the Congress, or even the BJP, attains a simple majority on its own.

Future Of JD(S) If There Is No Hung Assembly 

While the JD(S) has been upbeat about its chances of joining the government, given the precedents of exit polls going wrong, the BJP or the Congress getting a majority cannot be ruled out. And that’s a scenario the JD(S) must be praying not to be faced with on Saturday. For, that will most likely put the future of the party in jeopardy.    

Both the BJP and the Congress have denied having approached the JD(S) for support, and the JD(S) leadership has also distanced itself from Tanveer Ahmed’s remarks, saying he is not even a spokesperson of the party. 

Congress leader DK Shivkumar has been saying the party will win over 140 seats, while the BJP is also said to be confident of getting over 120 seats. In both scenarios, the JD(S) will be left with no role to play and have to sit out for five years. 

Ahead of the polling, Kumaraswamy rued financial crunch and said his party could take a hit in up to 25 assembly segments where it had chances of winning. “What has pained me is that I have not been able to financially support several of my candidates. My expectation was that I might get public support in terms of funds, I have taken a hit to an extent. At several constituencies which had winnable candidates like in Chikkaballapura and Doddaballapura, I have failed in financially supporting the candidates at the final stages,” Kumaraswamy was quoted as saying in a PTI report. 

He, however, said the JD(S) would still emerge “king”, and not only kingmaker.  

Jairam Ramesh, the Congress general secretary in charge of communications, Friday said he is “absolutely sure” that JD(S) will “disintegrate”. “This time I do not think that there is any scope for a coalition government with JDS,” ANI quoted him as saying.

Only time will tell if that is going to be true. 

The JD(S) has been critical of both the BJP and the Congress. It has accused the BJP of being communal and the Congress of being corrupt, but has said it is open to forming a government with either the BJP or the Congress.

It will either be the BJP, or the Congress that will come to power, but all eyes will definitely be on the JD(S) on Saturday to see which side it will sway if there is a hung assembly.