ABP-CVoter Survey Reveals How AAP's Entry In Rajasthan's Electoral Fray May Impact Congress, BJP

The AAP is expected to be a significant player in the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly election. But how will it impact the BJP and the Congress's voter base? ABP-CVoter Survey gauges the mood of Rajasthan.

From left: Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot, AAP's state unit chief Naveen Paliwal, BJP leader and former CM Vasundhara Raje.

Source : PTI/Instagram@naveenpaliwal

As the Rajasthan election 2023 draws closer, all eyes are on the new entrant in the electoral arena — Aam Aadmi Party. The Aam Aadmi Party has made waves in the last few electoral battles in the country by significantly impacting the voter base of the two biggest parties — the BJP and the Congress. AAP's strong position can be gauged from the fact that it won a thumping victory in the Punjab elections last year.

Now, the first opinion poll ahead of the Rajasthan assembly election 2023 — ABP-CVoter Survey — has revealed which party is likely to be impacted most by AAP contesting the state polls. The ABP-CVoter opinion poll tried to gauge the mood of the state on pertinent questions on matters that would impact the voters' lives. The ABP News-CVoter survey conducted between June 26 and 25 was conducted among 14,085 adults across Rajasthan.

To gauge the Naveen Paliwal-led AAP's impact on the other political parties in Rajasthan, the respondents, comprising supporters of the BJP, the Congress and others, were asked which party they thought would "suffer more if AAP contests assembly polls in Rajasthan"?

As many as 21.7% of the BJP supporters thought that AAP's entry would impact the saffron party, while 37.4% of the Congress supporters thought the same. Meanwhile, 23.3% of those who favoured other parties thought that the BJP would be impacted the most by AAP. 

For the Congress, the figures of the opinion poll weren't so encouraging as 34.7% of the party's own supporters thought that the Grand Old Party would bear the brunt of the AAP's entry into the electoral fray. As 54.8% of the BJP's supporters and 49.3% of the supporters of other parties felt the same.

AAP In The Last Few Elections

Here's how the AAP's performance has impacted the BJP and the Congress in the last few elections where the three parties fought against one another in the last few elections. In Delhi, the AAP wrested power from the Congress in 2013. This was accompanied by a 15.7% loss in vote share for the Congress and a 3.4% vote-share loss for the BJP. The Congress was reduced to zero seats in the Delhi Assembly and is yet to stage a return.

In 2015, the AAP secured a resounding victory after nearly a year of President's Rule (due to Kejriwal's resignation), decimating the Congress and the BJP in Delhi. While the Congress lost another 15% of the vote share, the AAP gained a substantial 25%. The BJP lost a mere 0.8% of its vote share that year. In 2020, the AAP bagged over 53% of the votes, leaving Congress with a paltry 4.3% of the votes.

Similarly, in Punjab, the AAP unseated the Congress in 2022 by bagging 42% of the votes. The Congress lost 59 seats in the assembly as it managed to get only 23% of the votes, losing a significant 15.5%. The BJP's loss in vote share was relatively less at 6.8%. The story was similar in Gujarat, where the Congress lost over 14% of its vote share and the AAP gained nearly 13%. In Goa, too, it faced off against Opposition parties AAP and TMC, which garnered 6.8% and 5.2% of the votes, hitting the Congress's vote share. In the Himachal Pradesh elections, however, the AAP failed to win even one seat, bagging a mere 1.1% of the total seats.

Disclaimer: [Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at the micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.

For other ABP-CVoter surveys, click here.