Deja vu: Is 2020 Playing Out Like Epoch-Making 1991?

In a spooky chain of events, a similar pattern is getting played out in 2019-2020. There are nationwide protests by students, civil society, activists on the issue of Citizenship Act and fee hikes in central universities.

Protesters and students shout slogans and hold Indian flags as they protest against the violent clashes at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) campus in New Delhi a day before, in Mumbai on January 6, 2020. PIC/AFP.

New Delhi: Will the year 2020 turn out to be as epoch-making as 1991 for India? Two major events currently playing out are eerily similar to what happened in 1990-91. One major event, remains to be seen whether it will play out or not. But we will find out shortly, in less than three weeks. The two events playing out in 2020 that give a deja vu feeling are the pan India students protests in university campuses and on the streets on the issue of fee hike and CAA and the Gulf tensions between Iran and the US. Observers have noted that the three important events of 1990-91 -- a seminal year for politics and economy of India. During 1990-91, there were nationwide students protest against the Mandal Commission report on reservations. In the same year, the US attacked Saddam Hussain-led Iraq with huge build up of tensions in the Middle East and a spike in crude oil prices. The third major event was the unleashing of economic reforms in the historic 1991 budget by Finance Minister Manmohan Singh. In a spooky chain of events, a similar pattern is getting played out in 2019-2020. There are nationwide protests by students, civil society, activists on the issue of Citizenship Act and fee hikes in central universities. US President Donald Trump announced the killing of top Iran General Qasim Suleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad. The top Iranian leadership including Ayatollah Ali Khaminei have vowed "harsh revenge" on America. In the last two days, Iran has launched missile strikes on American bases in Baghdad and Iraq and Trump has announced a response will come within days. There are fears of escalation hostilities in the Middle East and crude oil and gold prices have already spiked. The third variable, whether the next generation of economic reforms in announced in the Union Budget, will be known on February 1. India's GDP at 5 per cent has slumped to a 11 year low and the economic situation is facing myriad challenges. While the situation cannot be compared to 1991 when there was a balance of payments crisis, 2020 may need a similar policy response to crawl out of the economic slump.