Should India Alter Its Stance On Russia-Ukraine War? Follow The Chronology

PM Narendra Modi with Russian President Vladimir Putin and (inset) Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Source : Twitter/@PMOIndia

India seems to be slowly and gradually realising that it needs to now take a turn and change its stance on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War as the conflict turns bloodier by the day claiming lives and livelihoods not just in the two countries but across the world, especially in the emerging economies. New Delhi has realised that despite its solid strategic partnership with Moscow spanning over decades, it cannot be a fence sitter anymore and needs to call a spade a spade if it has to be taken seriously on the global stage, even if that means ruffling feathers with its age-old partner.

The fact that New Delhi is now finally taking sides, albeit subtly, was evident when Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin that “this is not an era of war”, in September last year on the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Following that, in November 2022, Modi’s statement made way to the Bali Declaration of the G20 Summit that took place under Indonesia’s chairmanship. While it seemed then that Russia and China took it in their stride, we now know that the statement did not go down well in Moscow, as well as in Beijing.

This is because since then both Russia and China have jointly and vehemently objected to the continuation of the “not an era of war” phrase in successive G20 meetings that have been taking place under India’s presidency. In February 2023, at the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors (FMCBG), a joint communique could not be adopted due to stiff objections from Russia and China as they did want any text that condemns the war to be included there. Similarly, in March 2022, India was again confronted with the same embarrassing situation when Russia and China, who have vowed to establish a “no limits friendship”, once again dug their heels and New Delhi failed to reach a consensus and a joint communique could not be issued.

"There were issues and the issues were concerning the Ukraine conflict on which there were divergences… There were differences on the Ukraine issue which we couldn’t reconcile between parties who held different positions …. Some countries feel (the Bali Declaration) cannot be extrapolated,” External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had told the media at the end of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.

In a déjà vu of sorts, as India hosted a meeting of finance chiefs and central bank governors of G20 this week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said a consensus could not be reached owing to objections from Russia and China. But notably, she also joined her western counterparts in condemning Russia’s decision to stop the ‘Black Sea Grain Deal’.

India Sending Signals to Russia 

Meanwhile, India has also made sure that it will not sit idle and will make certain moves that will give out strong signals to Russia as well as to arch enemy China. While India has already come under severe pressure from its western partners for not openly calling out Russia, New Delhi of late have taken series of steps that it is enough to upset the Russian government — whether it was inviting Ukrainian leaders to India, or Modi’s meeting with their President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, or New Delhi sending its top diplomat to Kyiv for wide-ranging talks.

In April this year, Ukraine sent its first Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova to India, and in a bold remark she told Modi that if he really wanted to be the ‘Vishwaguru’ then New Delhi should support Kyiv against Moscow’s aggression. Following this, in May, PM Modi made sure that a meeting is set up between him and Zelenskyy on the margins of the G7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan.

India has also come under pressure from the US, the European Union (EU) and others to give the Ukrainian President a spot at the upcoming G20 Summit, which is to be held in New Delhi on September 9-10. While it is not yet known if Zelenskyy will be allowed to speak at the G20 Summit in Delhi, whether in-person or virtually, India did follow-up Modi’s meeting with Zelenskyy by sending one of its top-ranking diplomats Sanjay Verma, Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs, to Kyiv last week.

As the news cycle got busy with the PM's visit to France, a significant development in terms of India's role in Russia-Ukraine war went unnoticed. Verma reached Kyiv on July 13 and hit the ground running as soon as he landed. He met Dzhaparova and discussed an “extensive agenda”, in which both sides discussed “Ukrainian conflict and Peace”. On her part, Dzhaparova urged India to consider Zelenskyy’s 10-point ‘Peace Formula’ that was announced at the G20 Summit in Bali.

During his three-day visit there, Verma also met Ruslan Stefanchuk, the Chairman of Ukraine’s unicameral parliament, or Verkhovna Rada, and discussed inter-parliamentary cooperation between “two democratic countries” even as he described life in Kyiv to be “surreal” where “style, swagger, stress is one big emotion”.

Last but not the least, Verma also met Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of President of Ukraine. “Discussed possible cooperation for peace in Ukraine. Concluded a constructive official visit with this meeting. Thank you Ukraine,” he tweeted.

Yet another aspect that brought India under severe criticism from its western allies was New Delhi’s consistent refusal to participate in the UNSC resolutions that called for taking punitive actions against Moscow. On the other hand, India has reiterated that dialogue and diplomacy should be the way towards a resolution to stop the war that has claimed thousands and thousands of lives on both sides.

However, this time India’s voice seemed to be slightly more assertive and rebuking towards Moscow. Earlier this week, as Russia carried out an air attack on the southern part of Ukraine's Odessa for two successive days even as it halted the Black Sea grain deal, India’s Ambassador to the UN Ruchira Kamboj said in a strongly worded speech: “India remains deeply concerned about the conflict in Ukraine, urging an immediate cessation of hostilities & return to dialogue & diplomacy. Essential to emphasize that this is not an era of war.”

Why Is India Changing Its Stance?

While two-way trade and investments between India and Russia, especially oil trade, have flourished since the war began even as New Delhi refused to join the Western sanctions imposed on Russia. In the last one year, Russia has become India’s top crude supplier. In May, Russian oil imports touched 1.95 million barrels per day, accounting for 40 per cent of India’s total crude purchase. In an interview to ABP Live, European Union’s Ambassador to India Ugo Astuto said India has “indirectly benefited” from the price cap imposed on Russian oil and petroleum products by the western powers.

India has been also exploring extensive investment opportunities in Russia and beyond. Russia is also planning to have a free trade deal with India in order to boost business and economic ties between both countries. Meanwhile, President Putin recently heaped praises on Modi calling him a “big friend” of Russia.

India is also sending a large-scale business delegation under the aegis of the Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) to Moscow in September, to seek Russian investments across various states under the Ruble-Rupee arrangement in sectors such as electronics, defence and IT.

In terms of defence, which remains the main aspect of the relationship India is also taking active steps with the help of its Western partners to wean away from Moscow and buy sensitive defence platforms with critical technological advancement from the United States and France, who have also been traditional weapons suppliers for New Delhi.

India has to continue with such a stance on the war now because of Russia’s growing closeness with China. While India cannot afford to have acrimony with both, it has surely become a matter of huge concern within the corridors of power that Moscow and Beijing are getting closer than ever before while its own ties with the Xi Jinping regime has hit its lowest ebb. Besides, with India now playing the role of G20 Chair, it cannot afford to not have a consensus at the upcoming summit. Clinching a New Delhi Declaration post the G20 Summit meeting will remain an uphill task. Also, with Putin now addressing the BRICS Summit virtually, questions have again come to the fore if he will do the same with New Delhi in September, and arriving at a consensus then will become a monumental task. 

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