Northeast Verdict Kept Faith In BJP But Gave Space To Congress As Well

Although the eight northeastern states are often grouped together, the politics of each is different due to their unique diversity. This, as usual, impacted the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the message delivered by voters in each state was different based on the various factors that were in play. Although many NDA parties like the NDPP, NPF, and NPP failed to win this time, two NDA constituents — the United People’s Party Liberal and Assam Gana Parishad — won one seat each. UPPL opened its account in the Lok Sabha by winning the Kokrajhar seat, while AGP opened its account after a decade by grabbing the Barpeta seat. Another NDA constituent, Sikkim’s ruling party, Sikkim Krantikari Morcha, retained the Sikkim Lok Sabha constituency. BJP Retains 2019 Gains In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party grabbed 14 out of the 25 seats in the Northeast — its highest in the region. This time, the party retained most of these seats, securing 13, a loss of one seat. Of the 13 seats, 9 came from Assam, while Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura contributed 2 seats each, mirroring the 2019 results. In Assam, voters opted for the status quo, maintaining their faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership as well as Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The saffron party lost the Jorhat seat but gained the newly created Kaziranga seat after the delimitation of the erstwhile Kaliabor seat, which the Congress had won last time. Arunachal Pradesh also voted for the status quo in favour of Modi's leadership. Although the saffron party won both seats, with Union Minister Kiren Rijiju retaining the Arunachal West seat and Tapir Gao the Arunachal East seat, its vote share dropped by around 10%. The party received 48.87% of the votes, while the opposition Congress polled 30.37%, an increase of 10%. In Tripura, the BJP retained both the Tripura West and Tripura East seats with significant margins. Former Chief Minister Biplab Deb defeated his opponent, Congress’s state president Ashish Saha, supported by the CPM, by a huge margin of 611,578 votes. On the other hand, the saffron party’s candidate Kriti Debbarma defeated her rival, Rajendra Reang of the CPM, supported by Congress, by a margin of 486,819 votes. The BJP, supported by its two allies, TIPRA Motha and the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, saw its vote share rise to 70.57%, an increase of around 21%. The CPI(M)-Congress alliance, on the other hand, polled 23.93%. This indicates that the people of the state preferred the status quo by voting for Modi's leadership as they were dissatisfied with the CPM-Congress alliance. In fact, many CPI(M) and Congress voters seemed to have voted for the alliance candidates. This time, the saffron party had no representative from the Inner Manipur Lok Sabha seat, which it won last time by a narrow margin of 2.4%. The seat was lost due to ethnic violence, with the majority Meitei voters opting for change as they felt ignored by the BJP, ruling at both the state and the Centre. They chose Congress’s Bimol Akoijam, a JNU professor who presented a counter-narrative against the Kuki-Zomis after last year’s ethnic violence. READ ON ABP LIVE: Inner Manipur Congress Candidate Bimol Akoijam Confronts Police Over 'Commotion' At Polling Booth: VIDEO Breathing Space for the Opposition Congress at the Cost of NDA Parties This northeastern region was once a stronghold of Congress, but it currently does not govern a single state. In many states, the party has considerably weakened due to defections of senior leaders and the exodus of low-ranked members. However, these Lok Sabha results have provided the much-needed momentum for the Congress, which increased its tally to 7 from the 4 it had last time. The grand old party registered a surprising performance by winning the Nagaland Lok Sabha seat, previously held by the state’s ruling party, the Nationalist Democratic People’s Party, an ally of the BJP. Nagaland Congress president Supongmeren Jamir defeated NDPP’s Chumben Merry by a margin of 50,984 votes. The Congress was supported by the emerging Rising People Party. This victory was significant considering the fact that the Congress has no MLA in the state assembly. In fact, there is no opposition as all MLAs support the People’s Democratic Alliance government led by Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio. This verdict calls for a strong Opposition in the state, where voters seem dissatisfied with the concept of an Opposition-less assembly. However, this does not indicate a revival of Congress, which still needs to rebuild its organisation. This verdict was also a call to the Modi government to address the decades-old Naga Political Issue, as the delay has caused resentment against the Centre. In Manipur, apart from winning the Inner Manipur seat, the Congress surprised the Naga People’s Front, an ally of the BJP, by securing the Outer Manipur seat. One main reason behind this victory is the Kuki-Zomi-dominated areas voting en masse for Congress. In Meghalaya, the Congress upset the ruling National People’s Party by winning the Tura Lok Sabha constituency. The NPP’s alliance with the BJP did not sit well with the Christian-majority voters, but there was also anti-incumbency against sitting MP Agatha Sangma. In Assam, Congress secured three seats, the same as in 2019, but its sweetest victory came from Dhubri, where its candidate Rakibul Hussain defeated All India United Democratic Front’s founder Badruddin Ajmal by a huge margin of 1,012,476 votes. The Muslims of the state indicated their unwillingness to be fence-sitters by voting for AIUDF, which is not aligned with the opposition INDIA bloc. While Congress retained the Nagaon seat, it wrested the Jorhat seat from the BJP based on the personal appeal of candidate Gaurav Gogoi. New Parties Become Significant Challengers The most significant takeaway from this election was the surprise victory of the Voice of the People Party, a three-year-old party, in the Shillong Lok Sabha constituency. Its candidate Ricky Andrew J Syngkon emerged victorious by defeating sitting Congress MP Vincent H Pala by a margin of 371,910 votes. This party, promising change, has been accepted by the people of Khasi and Jaintia hills. Similarly, the Zoram People’s Movement, which won the Mizoram Lok Sabha seat for the first time, has been accepted by the people of Mizoram. This shows that the people of the northeast are ready to give new parties a chance if they promise to bring change. The results of the Lok Sabha elections, with some areas of the northeast opting for change and others preferring the status quo, challenged the analysis by political commentators that the people of the region generally side with the Centre’s ruling party or the state’s ruling party. The analyses undermined the various local factors that play a key role in deciding the electoral choices of the diverse northeast. The author is a political commentator. [Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]