How Eknath Shinde's Gain Proves To Be Devendra Fadnavis's Loss. The Deputy CM Could Become CM A 3rd Time If...
With the Supreme Court's verdict out, the suspense over survival of the 11-month-old Eknath Shinde government in Maharashtra is over for now. The judgment brings forth three notable points — Devendra Fadnavis once again missed a chance to become the chief minister of Maharashtra; Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari played a villain in the drama; and Uddhav Thackeray made an imprudent decision by hastily resigning from the CM post.
The apex court refused to decide on the disqualification of 16 MLAs who ditched Uddhav Thackeray and joined rebel Eknath Shinde's camp. Team Uddhav had approached the Supreme Court pleading to disqualify the 16 on the ground that they violated the whip issued by the Shiv Sena (Uddhav-led Shiv Sena was the only Shiv Sena then with the Election Commission yet to recognise the Shinde group as the original Shiv Sena). However, the court abstained from encroaching upon the rights of the legislature and threw the ball in the court of the Vidhan Sabha speaker to decide their fate. If the court had ruled otherwise and disqualified the MLAs, it would have presented the BJP with an opportunity to make Devendra Fadnavis the CM again. It would have been his third time as CM. Fadnavis became the CM in 2014 first for a full five-year term. He occupied the hot seat for three days in 2019 with the help of Ajit Pawar's brief defection from the NCP.
If 16 MLAs from the Shinde camp (including Shinde) were to be disqualified, the magic figure of majority would have fallen to 137 from 145. The Maharashtra assembly has total of 288 seats. In that scenario, the BJP with 105 MLAs and the Shinde camp's 24 MLAs with the help of independents and smaller parties would have easily formed the government. This time, as the BJP sources tell, Fadnavis had a strong chance to be named as the CM. But Shinde's gain proved to be Fadnavis's loss.
What Will Speaker Rahul Narvekar Do?
Another message from the Supreme Court's verdict is that Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari played a villain during the political drama that led to the ouster of Uddhav Thackeray as the CM. The court questioned his decision to order Uddhav to take a floor test, merely based on a letter by dissident MLAs that they didn't have faith in Uddhav's leadership. The MLAs had not even mentioned in the letter their inclination to leave the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. In court's view, it was an internal matter of the party and the demand for floor test was not right. The court remarked that a governor should not use powers that have not been provided to him by the Constitution.
Uddhav Thackeray's resignation before taking the floor test also went against him. The court reasoned that since Uddhav resigned before the floor test, the old situation couldn't be restored. While making this comment, the court echoed NCP chief Sharad Pawar's words, who too, in his autobiography, had accused Uddhav for giving up without a fight. Had Uddhav not resigned, the scenario would have been different today. In the floor test, if the Shinde camp MLAs had voted against him, defying the whip, all of them could have been disqualified.
After the SC verdict, the whispers in the political corridors is that Speaker Rahul Narvekar, who belongs to the BJP, would take his own sweet time to decide on the fate of the 16 MLAs. This "sweet time" could be as long as the tenure of Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha, which would end next year.
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