Himanta's Peace Pact With ULFA Could Be A Milestone For Assam, But...
At a time when the extremist group, United Liberation Front of Assam-Independent, led by Paresh Barua, is trying hard to prove its existence (with a series of blasts in Assam), Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is hopeful that by the end of this December or by January next year, there would be a peace treaty with the pro-talks faction of the ULFA. If this happens, it will be a milestone in Assam's history.
The pro-talks faction of ULFA gave up violence in 2011 as a result of peace efforts initiated by the then Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government, backed by the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre. Electorally too, Congress benefited from this in the 2011 state elections when the party proved the speculations of political commentators wrong by coming to power for the third consecutive time.
Later, the BJP came to power at the Centre and also in the state, but the peace talks didn’t bear fruit. In fact, at one time, the pro-talks faction even alleged that there had been no progress in talks after the change of government at the Centre. However, this year, the talks progressed after the faction met with the Centre’s interlocutor AK Mishra. But obstacles do remain. One of the key demands of the pro-talks faction of the ULFA is to reserve 102 assembly constituencies out of 126 for the indigenous communities of the state. Significantly, this demand is more or less in line with the Himanta-led BJP government’s push for the protection of the indigenous population of the state.
Mizoram Continues To Shelter Refugees
Newly elected Chief Minister of Mizoram, Lalduhoma, this week told the assembly that the state will continue to give refuge to over 40,000 people from Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Mizoram. He also informed the assembly that he had a conversation with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Foreign Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on this issue before he was sworn in as the Chief Minister.
The refugee issue is a sensitive matter in the state. These refugees share an ethnic bond with the Mizos of the state. As a result, all political parties of the state are sympathetic towards the refugees. So, it was expected that there would be no change even after the Zoram People’s Movement replaced the Mizo National Front of Zoramthanga in power in the state.
Having said that, it is also a fact that the refugee crisis has been a financial burden on the northeastern state, and for that, it needs the Centre's help. That’s also the reason why Lalduhoma said that he would meet the Union ministers in Delhi to discuss the matter and seek the Centre’s help. The new government led by ZPM seems to be keen to have friendly relations with the Centre, which shouldn’t be turning a blind eye towards this issue.
Setback For NPP In Poll-Bound Arunachal Pradesh
Ahead of the assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh, the National People’s Party-led by Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma has suffered a setback. The party’s working president of the Arunachal unit, Likha Saaya, who is a former legislator, resigned. Saaya, who joined the party six months ago with the expectation that he would be appointed as the state NPP president, was unhappy with the party’s national leadership for the 'delay' in elevating him to the post.
This resignation is likely to affect the morale of the party's supporters and, most importantly, the organisation as a whole. A good performance for the party in the upcoming state polls is crucial. The NPP secured the 'national party' status in 2019 after it was recognised as a 'state party' by the Election Commission of India in four northeastern states, including Arunachal Pradesh. Any poor performance could mean the loss of the 'national party' tag.
In the last state elections, the NPP had emerged as the third-largest party by winning 5 seats, ahead of Congress. In terms of vote share, it was the second-largest party, securing 14.46% of the votes. For the last five years, the party, although not a part of the Pema Khandu-led BJP government, has been providing outside support to the dispensation. Now, with elections only four months away, time is short for the party to prepare itself organisationally.
Faction-Ridden Tripura Congress Focuses On 2024 Polls
To strengthen the grand old party ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Tripura Pradesh Congress Committee this week launched a campaign against the BJP governments in the state and the Centre. There also have been speculations that Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi is likely to visit the northeastern state later this month to boost the party’s workers and supporters ahead of the 2024 polls.
While state Congress president Ashish Saha, backing the MLA Sudip Roy Barman faction, has been trying to revive the party by focusing on the organisation, factionalism within the party refuses to die down. Two other legislators — Birajit Sinha and Gopal Chandra Roy — aren’t helping the party president either. The two veteran leaders are unhappy with the dominance of the Barman faction within the party. Interestingly, the faction-ridden party is confident enough to contest both the two Lok Sabha seats in the state. This week, Sudip even appealed to the CPM to support the party in the two seats.
CPM, Congress To Unite For 2024?
Although state CPM secretary Jitendra Chaudhury indicated this week that whatever the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) decides at the central level would apply to the state units too, there remain questions to what extent the Left would accede to the demand of the Congress. If the CPM accedes to the illogical demand of Congress, particularly Sudip Roy Barman, it is likely to lose more ground in the northeastern state. Importantly, after the defeat of Congress in the three Hindi heartland states, Jitendra himself had said that overconfidence cost the grand old party.
Last month, former Chief Minister Manik Sarkar had given indications of CPM contesting alone by urging the party cadres to focus on strengthening the party organization. Sarkar’s point of view is backed by electoral data, which clearly points out that the alliance with Congress hasn’t benefited the Left. In fact, data says that the alliance has been more beneficial for the grand old party.
Currently, the state unit of the party is divided on the issue of going in alliance with Congress. If the Left party cedes its space for the 2024 polls, Congress is likely to push for an almost equal seat share bargain in the 2028 state elections. This is what concerns the CPM, particularly Manik Sarkar, who also happens to be the lone member from the state to the party’s Politburo, the highest body of the CPM. It remains to be seen whose political line is accepted by the party’s central committee for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The author is a political commentator.
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