Skymet Report: El Nino probability recedes

The equatorial sea surface temperatures continue to settle above average across the Pacific Ocean. However, the temperatures are on decline. In fact, the most recent Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) figure i.e. for NDJ (November-December-January) stands at 0.8°C as compared to 0.9°C in OND (October-November-December). With all these factors, the El Niño probabilities which was 90% in December has now come down to 65% during the spring 2019. According to Skymet Weather, by the time Monsoon 2019 arrives the probability would be less than 50%. ENSO neutral conditions are on rise and thus, we can say 2019 would be a devolving El Niño.