(Source: ECI / CVoter)
Why Modi Govt's Decision To Enact Farm Laws Was Economic But The One To Repeal Them Is Political
Farm Laws To Be Repealed: With five state going to elections early next year, this decision will definitely play out in at least three states — Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
New Delhi: The Narendra Modi government has bowed down on the issue of farmers for a second time now.
In 2014, the government had faced strong opposition from farmers after it introduced a new land acquisition law. The Centre had to eventually withdraw the law and the Manmohan Singh government's Land Acquisition Act later.
This time, the three contentitious farm laws passed by the government last year will be repealed. PM Modi made this announcement on the occasion of Guru Nanak Jayanti.
With five state going to elections early next year, this decision will definitely play out in at least three states — Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
In UP, the BJP was said to be losing ground in the western region. There were reports that the farmer movement expanded to terai areas after the October 3 Lakhimpur Kheri incident, which claimed the lives of four farmers who were allegedly mowed down by vehicles in the convoy of Union Minister and BJP MP Ajay Kumar Mishra's son Ashish Mishra.
Overall, close to 160 seats are likely to be affected in the state.
Was the decision to repeal the laws taken keeping in mind the upcoming elections in UP? The PM said the farm laws have been withdrawn because he has not been able to convince "some farmers" that the government had brought the laws only for the welfare of the community, and with "sacred" intentions.
Is that the case or was it that the government felt the farmers' movement could backfire in the assembly elections?
What The Statistics Say
The Jat belt in western UP has 110 seats. The BJP had won 88 seats last time — up from 38 in 2012. This time, however, it was predicted that the party may only get less than a third of that.
Similarly, the Terai belt has 42 assembly seats. The BJP had won 37 seats last time. While Akhilesh's Samajwadi Party got only three seats, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party got just two. In the same belt, the BJP had won only five seats in 2012. The SP had got 25 seats then and BSP 10.
So, out of the total 152 seats, BJP won 125 seats last time.
Did the BJP fear loss of seats here?
Overall, while the decision to implement the new farm laws was economic, the one to repeal them appears political and electoral.
This can also be said because the ABP C-Voter's November survey shows that though the BJP is losing just 0.7 per cent votes but its seat count is coming down by at least 108. In the last assembly elections, BJP got 41.4 per cent votes and 325 seats. This time, the C-voter survey is saying that the BJP could get only 217 seats.
The election is 100 days away. As the election dates draw near, was there a fear of losing more seats?
Return To Power In UP?
There are 2.41 crore farmers in UP who get Rs 6,000 per annum from the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi. Nearly 28 lakh more farmers have already applied for the scheme.
This means there are a total of 2.7 crore farmers.
Now, if there are three voters in a farmer's family, the number of voters crosses 8 crores. If we presume that 25 per cent of them are not happy, the number comes to 2 crores.
Naturally, the BJP could not afford to take the risk of losing such a large section of voters who are unhappy with their policies. After all, the party won a total of 3.5 crore votes last time.
Amit Shah has already said that Yogi must win in 2022 if Modi has to win again in 2024. The farmers' displeasure could have come in the way of Yogi's victory.
While repealing the laws will certainly bring a section of farmers back to the BJP, it remains to be seen as to what extent the party succeeds in regaining the trust of farmers.
The BJP may also benefit in Punjab after this decision. An agreement with Captain Amarinder Singh can be reached.
Farmers in the plains of Uttarakhand may also vite in favour of the BJP.
Some Questions Remain
The farmers' protest against the three farm laws has been going on for a year. Nearly 700 farmers have lost their lives so far. The farmers have braved a chilly winter, a scorching summer and a monsoon in spate, finally succeeding in bringing a string government like this to its knees.
PM Modi said he could not succeed in convincing the farmers. So, should it be assumed that next time there will be more emphasis on explaining a law before it is enacted?
There is also an argument that these laws were passed haphazardly, especially in the Rajya Sabha. If the bill had been placed before a select committee or a standing committee, some amendments might have been done. After its implementation, this law would not have belonged to the BJP but the entire Parliament. It is to be seen if the government will now desist from passing controversial bills without proper discussion.
These three laws will be repealed but will there be work towards making MSP a legal right? On this issue, will the farmers be explained as to why the government cannot guarantee legal rights but can assure that MSP will not be abolished at any cost?
While the questions await their answers, overall, the dicision is a victory for democracy.
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