ABP-CVoter Survey: BJP To Retain UP, But Lose Over 100 Seats. Cong, AAP To Dominate Punjab & Uttarakhand

BJP remains to be the favourite to win Assembly polls in states including populous UP, Goa and Manipur, while Congress and AAP are most likely to make massive inroads in Uttarakhand and Punjab. 

(File Photos/ Getty)

AB CVoter Opinion Poll: With five states going to polls in the early months of next year, ABP News is tracking the developments of voters and their sentiments. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa are the states that will witness Assembly Elections in the early months of 2022.  

According to the survey, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains to be the favourite to win Assembly polls in states including populous Uttar Pradesh, Goa and Manipur, while Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are most likely to make massive inroads in Uttarakhand and Punjab. 

The five-state snap poll was conducted with a sample size of 1,07,193 across 690 seats with a margin of error of +/- 3% to +/- 5%.

Here's An Overall View Of ABP CVoter Opinion Poll For The Month Of November 2021:

Uttar Pradesh

Despite Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government is still the favourite to win the 2022 Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) is gathering steam and narrowing vote share and seats in the upcoming elections.

In the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the BJP and its alliance partners are projected to get 213-221 seats, over 100 down from 325 it had won in the 2017 elections, the snap poll revealed.

Meanwhile, SP is rising rapidly in popularity and is now expected to get somewhere around 152 to 160 seats. The battle in UP is now clearly between the BJP and the SP and the gap between the two is only around 60 seats.

Punjab

In Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is most likely to emerge as the single-largest party amid the ongoing political crisis and protest by farmers over the three farm laws. 

AAP is likely to emerge as the single-largest party with 47-53 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly, followed by the ruling Congress (42-50 seats) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (16-24 seats).

Meanwhile, BJP in Punjab is staring at its worst performance in recent decades in Punjab, which could be due to the resentment among farmers over the new laws and loss of alliance with the SAD. 

The saffron party is likely to win 0-1 seat, the ABP-CVoter survey noted.

Uttarakhand

In Uttarakhand, the BJP is still leading the race with predictions hinting at 36-40 seats in the upcoming Assembly polls even as it witnessed a major overhaul with three different chief ministers taking charge in the past less than one year. 

It is the Congress that is giving a strong fight to the ruling dispensation with a gain of over 20 seats, touching a tally of 30-34 seats in the 70-member Assembly.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which will make its electoral debut in the hill state, is expected to win just 0-2 seats, while the others are projected to bag just 0-1 seat, as per the survey.

Goa

Ruling BJP is most likely to retain government in Goa with predictions hinting 19-23 seats in the 40-member Assembly, followed by others at 8-12 seats, AAP at 3-7 seats and Congress with only 2-6 seats.

Congress had won 17 seats in 2017 Assembly polls in Goa, while Arvind Kejriwal's AAP failing to open its account. 

In terms of vote percentage, BJP is likely to sweep the polls with a 37.5 per cent vote share, followed by AAP at 23.6 per cent and Congress at 18.6 per cent. 

Manipur

In Manipur, BJP is heading for a satisfactory win in Assembly polls. According to the survey, BJP is likely to win 25-29 seats, the Congress 20-24, Naga People's Front (NPF) 4-8, and others 3-7 in the 60-member Manipur Assembly.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to get 38.7 per cent votes, an increase of 2.4 per cent as compared to 2017, while the Congress will also witness a decline in its vote share from 35.1 per cent in 2017 to 33.1 per cent in 2022 elections.