Maldives Presidential Elections: The upcoming Presidential elections in Maldives, which will be taking place Saturday, has witnessed massive heated campaigning for the past one year, and not surprisingly it was India that got dragged into the centre of all the heated political debate and rage there this time as eight potential candidates fight to get the top seat. The main candidate for the elections is President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who is fighting for a second term, and facing substantial political heat over his ‘India First’ policy.
Solih, who came to power in 2018, is supported by the ruling Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), has increasingly found himself “lonely and devoid of any strong political ally” even as his close friend and confidant Mohamed Nasheed has resigned from the party citing several differences, sources told ABP LIVE.
While the Indian government has chosen to remain silent on the issue publicly, it has continued to provide indirect support to President Solih by helping him with grants and aid in developing some of the mega connectivity projects in that country as well as providing the government with defence items.
Solih came to power in Maldives after his predecessor Abdullah Yameen, from the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), was ousted. Yameen, charged with corruption and embezzlement, is serving a jail sentence. He had pushed Maldives directly into China’s embrace by allowed Beijing entry to some of their key infrastructure projects that resulted in the tiny island nation incurring heavy debt.
This time, the PPM has joined hands with the Progressive National Congress (PNC) and fielded Dr. Mohamed Muizzu as their preferred Presidential candidate with Yameen barred from contesting the elections.
According to the sources, President Solih has been accused of “compromising the country’s sovereignty” while allowing India to have its military base there and presence of personnel from armed forces in that country.
There are two candidates who have stood independently this time – Hassan Zameel, former Deputy Defence Minister and Umar Naseer, former Home Minister of Maldives. Yet another candidate who will be fighting the elections independently is Ahmed Faris Maumoon, as his party Maldives Reform Movement (MRM) could not get the required number of members to fight the elections.
Yet another leader in the Indian Ocean island nation is Mohamed Nazim of the Maldives National Party (MNP).
India’s Drawn Right In The Middle Of Maldives Presidential Debate
Earlier this week, Maldives held a fierce televised debate in which all eight candidates, including President Solih, took part and for the first time India became one of the key topics for discussion. During the debate that was aired on live TV, Solih’s opponents questioned the presence of Indian military in that island and the purported development of the Uthuru Thilafalhu atoll to create a military base there, according to local media reports.
One of the most vocal opponents of the Solih government and his ‘India First’ policy was Naseer, who said the Solih government has “sold sovereignty” of the country after coming into power, and that with growth in ‘India First’ policy in the picture, the “Indian military cannot be controlled”.
Earlier, in a Facebook statement, Naseer had written that granting access to the Uthuru Thilafalhu atoll, which is being developed with India’s aid, “will pave the way for constant Indian military and warship presence in the area”, and that “Maldivian independence is slowly fading away”.
“My policy is not an 'India-first' or 'China-first' one. Our policy is a Maldives first one,” Naseer said in the debate. He even blamed India for what President Solih did in the Chagos Island case with Mauritius.
The Chagos case began in October 2022 when the International Tribunal For the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) started hearing a dispute on the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) between Mauritius and the Maldives. During the deliberations, Maldives agreed to recognise the sovereignty of Mauritius over Chagos, upsetting the opposition parties there even more while they blamed India for pushing Solih to do this.
Sources said India is keeping a close watch on which way the election results go as it does not want any other political party there to bring in China there the way Yameen did.
"Many are paying close attention to the presidential election outcome due to heightened interest in Maldives’ ties with China compared with India. These large powers’ tensions continue to run high due to their border conflict for the past few years. Therefore, many are concerned about how this competition will play out in the maritime domain, particularly in the Indian Ocean region where India continues to demonstrate greater leadership,” said Nilanthi Samaranayake, Adjunct Fellow, East-West Center in Washington.
According to Samaranayake, “Maldives resides along the main Indian Ocean sea-lanes and in close proximity to India, so the outcome of the election will be closely studied for whether the winner is seen as favourable to India’s security interests."
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Indian Ocean Security Architecture
The final outcome of the Presidential polls in Maldives has “direct bearing” on India’s security architecture as far as the maritime domain is concerned. Maldives holds a prominent and strategic position in the Indian Ocean region, which is also facing increasingly assertiveness and military adventures from China, the sources cited above said.
Immediately after coming to power, Solih made sure that he joins the Indian Oceans intiative that aligns with India’s Security and Growth For All (SAGAR) strategy.
"Rather than being primarily a cause for concern, it’s more broadly an indicator of success in India’s policy for the past 15 years to increase its defence and security ties with Maldives. That Maldives takes this relationship so seriously demonstrates India’s greater regional leadership. Obviously, blatant criticism not desired by New Delhi and some of the campaign rhetoric is clearly for partisan political purposes,” said Samaranayake, who is also Visiting Expert at United States Institute of Peace (USIP).
She added: “However, it is important to listen to the heart of this discussion particularly about Maldives’ concerns as a small state. It’s concerned about maintaining sovereignty in the context of strategic competition in the Indian Ocean. It’s concerned about too much dependence on any one large power. It’s concerned about debt servicing obligations and sees the cautionary tale of its neighbour, Sri Lanka, which defaulted last year.”
She also said no matter what the outcome will be of the election there, India will “continue to place high importance on this relationship given Maldives’ strategic location and their deep historical and geographic connections".
In May this year, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited Maldives and handed over a Fast Patrol Vessel and a Landing Craft Assault ship to the Maldives National Defence Forces (MNDF).
In August 2022, President Solih visited India to strengthen the ties. During that time, India had announced the replacement ship for the CGS Huravee — an indigenously built Trinkat-class patrol vessel that the Navy gave to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) in 2006. India has also provided 24 utility vehicles to Maldives.
The Maldives will implement measures internally to increase our Maritime Domain Awareness whilst partnering with neighboring militaries for joint patrols and exercises such as the ones we presently conduct with Sri Lanka and India.
Maldives is also part of the trilateral dialogue, Colombo Security Dialogue (CSC), which is chaired by the national security advisors including that of Sri Lanka. The seventh Deputy NSA-level CSC was hosted by Maldives on July 12, 2023. The Indian delegation was led by Deputy NSA Vikram Mistri, which focussed on maritime safety and security, countering terrorism and radicalisation, combating trafficking and transnational organised crime and cyber security, among others.