India can achieve its vision of energy independence by 2047, according to a new study released by the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Examining India’s three most energy-intensive sectors – power, transport, and industry – the study said that achieving energy independence will generate significant economic, environmental, and energy benefits.
The report titled “Pathways to Atmanirbhar Bharat” also said that India’s energy infrastructure requires a $3 trillion investment in the coming decades.
This includes $2.5 trillion in consumer savings through 2047, reducing fossil fuel import expenditure by 90 per cent or $240 billion per year by 2047, enhancing India’s industrial competitiveness globally, and enabling India’s net-zero commitment ahead of schedule.
Amol Phadke, Berkeley Lab scientist and a co-author said, “India’s energy infrastructure requires a $3 trillion investment in the coming decades, and our study finds that prioritizing new energy assets that are cost-effective and clean is crucial for long-term financial sustainability…India can leverage the existing policy framework it has laid out to expand the clean energy deployment.”
India is the third largest energy consumer in the world and its energy demand will quadruple in the coming decade. Currently, imports 90 per cent of its oil, 80 per cent of its industrial coal, and 40 per cent of the natural gas it consumes, the report noted.
Price and supply volatility in the global energy markets, as witnessed in recent years, strain India’s foreign exchange reserves, resulting in economy-wide inflation, it added.
“India has achieved the world’s lowest renewable energy prices and has found some of the world’s largest lithium reserves. This can propel India towards cost-effective energy independence in a way that is economically and environmentally advantageous,” said Nikit Abhyankar, Berkeley Lab scientist and the lead author of the study.
The study said, “Since much of India’s infrastructure is yet to be built, we find that it is critical to ensure that most of the new energy assets are clean. This would involve installing more than 500 GW of non-fossil electricity generation capacity by 2030, an 80 per cent clean grid by 2040, and 90 per cent by 2047. Nearly 100 per cent of new vehicle sales could be electric by 2035. Heavy industrial production shifts primarily to green hydrogen and electrification: 90 per cent of iron and steel, 90 per cent of cement, and 100 per cent of fertilizers by 2047.”
Most of the lithium needed (estimated 2 million tons by 2040) for manufacturing new electric vehicles and grid-scale battery storage systems could be produced domestically using newly discovered reserves, the study noted.
In addition, the Indian industry must transition to clean technologies such as EVs and green steel manufacturing. India is one of the world’s largest auto and steel exporters, with their largest markets in EU countries committed to carbon neutrality and a potential carbon border adjustment tariff, the study said.
The study noted that India has a unique advantage to leapfrog to a clean energy future since the bulk of its energy infrastructure has yet to be built. India’s growing energy demand offers a significant runway of fifteen years for the existing fossil energy assets to transition to clean energy. This transition will be important to do in concert with the most affected communities, ensuring an equitable transition for the country’s workforce.
This energy transition would require significant policy support, including deployment mandates for clean technologies, financial and policy support for emerging technologies such as green hydrogen, and investment in domestic manufacturing capacity, the study said.