New Delhi: The India-China border crisis in Ladakh that started in April-May 2020 is likely to continue for a longer period as Beijing “sees advantage” in keeping the tensions over the boundary “unstable and unsettled”, even as New Delhi was forced seek a new strategic orientation for itself by aligning more with countries like the US and Australia, according to former CIA official Lisa Curtis.
Speaking exclusively to ABPLIVE during her visit to India, Curtis, who is now the Senior Fellow & Director (Indo-Pacific Security Program) at Washington DC-based think tank, the Centre For A New American Security (CNAS), said, “I think they see using the unresolved border with India as something that they can use to pressure India.”
She said China sees an "advantage" in not settling the border dispute "...I don’t see that China will sit down for serious border negotiation anytime soon. China refuses to go back to the status quo ante positions of May 2020 … They have de-escalated at three of the five areas where there had been a build-up in 2020, but there are still two areas of Demchok and Depsang where they are still forward deployed. They want to just draw the issue out,” said Curtis, a former US National Security Council (NSC) official under the Donald Trump administration.
She said: “They (China) want to force India to expend resources on that border and demonstrate that they can keep India on edge. They see that as a way to keep pressure on India and I don’t see that changing in the near future.”
According to Curtis, who has worked in the CIA, US State Department, and Capitol Hill, the fact that Beijing is not keen on settling the ongoing border dispute with India became clearer when it did not work toward resolving it before India hosted the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September.
“They really had an opportunity. If they really wanted to de-escalate their tensions with India, the time to do it was before the G20 (Summit), if they really wanted to smooth relations with India. But they chose not to do that, so, it tells me that they are probably digging-in for the long haul and they see advantages in keeping the border unstable, unsettled and this is something India has to learn to live with,” she highlighted.
President Xi Jinping, became the first Chinese leader to not attend the G20 Summit since the meetings began at the level of heads of state in 2008. Xi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi last met in-person in Johannesburg, South Africa, on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit and agreed on “expeditious disengagement and de-escalation” at Line of Actual Control (LAC).
So far, troops on both sides have disengaged from Pangong Tso, Galwan Valley, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot Springs (PP-15). However, despite several rounds of diplomatic and commanders level talks, both sides remain engaged with heavy troops deployment at Depsang and Demchok sectors of the de facto border.
However, Curtis also said that considering the challenges the Chinese economy is facing, Xi may rethink on how to steer the country’s foreign policy.
“They (Chinese) can always surprise you and let’s see how China’s own economic problems impact their foreign policy because they certainly are having challenges with the economy right now. So that’s the big question. Will that impact President Xi’s thinking on foreign policy issues? Will they shift their foreign policy in any way?"
Curtis also pointed out that due to the Chinese aggression at the LAC, India was forced to go for the strategic orientation by giving a renewed push to the Quad, of which the US, Australia and Japan are also members.
“The 2020 border crisis definitely has had a major impact on India’s strategic orientation. And I think this probably will continue. The 2020 border crisis certainly did enable India to want to be closer with the Quad … We see India is much more receptive to the Quad in meeting at Summit level, inviting Australia to participate in the Malabar Exercise for the first time after the 2020 border crisis, getting closer with the United States,” she said.
‘US Can’t Take Its Eyes Off Indo-Pacific, China Will Then Take Advantage’
According to Curtis, as the Joe Biden administration gears up to go into the election mode with Presidential polls coming up in 2024, Washington cannot afford to get “takes its eye off the ball” when it comes to the Indo-Pacific strategic framework with the ongoing wars between Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine.
“US cannot take its eyes off the ball in the Indo-Pacific. The stakes are simply too high and if China perceives that the US is not focussed anywhere but in the Middle East and Ukraine, they will take advantage of that and that is something we cannot wait for to happen,” she said, adding that Washington will have to continue standing beside Taiwan and the Philippines, who were standing up to Beijing.
“It’s really important that we continue with all those initiatives. Because China will then take advantage of the US being distracted by these other conflicts,” said Curtis.
However, she believes China will not attack Taiwan and weighs all options carefully before taking such an extreme step.
“We cannot let our guards down and we need to continue pushing for deterrence, alliances and partnerships and nurturing those alliances and partnerships. But in terms of Chinese calculations, I think they recognise that any invasion of Taiwan will have tremendous consequences for their own economy and I think this is something that this is something they do weigh. They will not take any such decision likely at all,” she underlined.
Curtis also added: “I don’t think the US should push them in that direction where they might even consider such action. China still has a lot of considerations to make. President Xi has even said they would rather unify Taiwan peacefully.”
Biden and Xi are going to soon meet in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit that begins on November 11. This will be Xi’s first visit to the US since 2017.
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‘Israel-Palestine Issue Will Have To Have A Negotiated Settlement’
On the ongoing and catastrophic war in Gaza, Curtis said the Israel-Palestine conflict has to come to a “negotiated settlement”, and that the US “strongly” supports the two-state solution to end the decades old dispute.
“US is trying to play a helpful role in showing support to Israel but also trying to counsel some type of restraint. Certainly Israel has a right to respond to these attacks but the real question is how they respond … But the world is also watching and the world is concerned about the loss of civilian life in Gaza,” said Curtis.
She added: "This is a situation that is not going to go away overnight. This was a massive attack on Israel. A terrible attack. There are consequences. We will be seeing those consequences I believe for a long time to come and it will distract the U.S. administration and the U.S. administration must deal with this major crisis in the Middle East and support long-time ally, Israel. So this is going to be a very challenging time.”
The death toll of Palestinians being killed in Gaza reached a staggering 10,400 as the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) continues relentless bombing of the strip to eliminate Hamas.
“President Biden is getting ready to head into election campaign mode. He is going to be dealing with these massive international challenges. The US strongly supports the two-state solution and there will eventually have to be a negotiated solution here. Right now is not the time for peace talks. That time will come. And I am sure the US will do what it can to facilitate these talks,” said Curtis.