BJP's South Challenge, 'Over-Sized' Coalition In Bihar, I.N.D.I.A's Prospects — Pollsters Opine On LS Election 2024

Prominent pollsters shared their views on the positioning of the BJP-led NDA and the opposition's I.N.D.I.A. bloc ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha election 2024 at the 'Ideas of India' summit.

Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder, CVoter Foundation; Sanjay Jha, Author and Columnist; Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Co-Director of Lokniti, CSDS; Pradeep Gupta, Chairman & MD, Axis My India Ltd. at 'Ideas of India' Summit. ( Image Source :ABP Network )

Prominent pollsters on Saturday shared their views on the positioning of the BJP-led NDA and the opposition's I.N.D.I.A. bloc ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha election 2024 at the 'Ideas of India' summit. Speaking about the NDA's prospects in the Southern states, Pradeep Gupta, Chairman & MD, Axis My India Ltd., said that the alliance is facing uncertainty in Tamil Nadu after the AIADMK severed its ties. In Kerala, the BJP has failed to make a mark in the assembly as well as the General election, he mentioned.

"In Andhra Pradesh, the regional parties like TDP and YSRCP are dominant and the BJP will have to align with a party to be able to make inroads. In Tamil Nadu too, they are trying to align with the AIADMK," he said.

In Karnataka, the BJP swept the 2019 Lok Sabha election. "With the Congress government in Karnataka, the BJP will have to fight there as well with its challenge to keep its previous tally intact," Pradeep Gupta remarked.

Contrasting with the I.N.D.I.A.'s situation, he said that the Opposition alliance is having a "fight to survive".

Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Co-Director of Lokniti, CSDS spoke about the polls saying, "Bihar is an important state as it has 40 seats and it is vital for both sides." On leaders from opposition parties joining the NDA fold, he opined, "The BJP is comfortable in the polls and it wants to achieve big... it is not that they are not confident about their win."

"Nitish Kumar is not as popular as he was, his image has been affected. I.N.D.I.A's partner parties not being able to finalise seat sharing is discussed, but even with the NDA too it is the same case in Bihar as it is an oversized coalition," he further said.

Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder, CVoter Foundation, said Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a new dimension to the talks about the Lok Sabha Election 2024 with the target of 400+ for the NDA and 370+ for the BJP.

"If we want an understanding of the ground reality, we need to see that the baseline has changed since 2004 with a 21% swing in votes... In the total of 545 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP doesn't exist on 100, there is a direct BJP-Congress faceoff on 200 seats where the BJP is able to sweep 91-95%. Now in seats where the BJP is contesting against the regional parties, it needs to be seen if the party can win and thereby reach its target," Deshmukh stressed.

Regarding the BJP-TMC fight in West Bengal, Deshmukh opined that it will be the "mother of all battles" in Lok Sabha polls.

If Lok Sabha Election Fought On Issues, Modi Govt Has No Chance Of Coming Back: Sanjay Jha

Sanjay Jha, Author, Columnist, and former Congress leader, said that issues are being neglected. "If this 2024 election is fought on issues such as unemployment, inflation, the Chandigarh Mayor election, electoral bonds, then the incumbent government has no chance of coming back," the former Congress leader opined.

He also claimed a failure of the Congress party's role as opposition saying if the BJP was in Opposition under the present circumstances then the saffron party would have cornered the government. "The Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, should have played a bigger role in this," he added.

"In 202 seats where there is a Congress-BJP fight, the Congress won only 16, the hit rate is 8%," Jha said. "The Congress has its limitations, but it has to do the heavy lifting in the states like Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra".

Speaking about the constant flip-flops in Maharashtra politics, he said the "people's trust was betrayed." "There is a stock exchange of MLAs where they are being sold and bought... In broad daylight, the democracy is being mocked and that has been normalised," he remarked.

Pollsters Predict Lok Sabha Election Outcome

Sanjay Jha predicted that the BJP will not be able to cross 200 seats and that "a new Prime Minister will take oath from the Opposition camp." "In direct faceoff with the BJP on 202 seats, the Congress will secure over 100," he added.

"As per the ABP-CVoter tracker, the BJP can cross 40% vote share... The question is whether it is able to make inroads in other seats," Yashwant Deshmukh said.

Sanjay Kumar predicted the saffron party would gain more seats in Odisha and said, "The BJP will win bigger this time than its 2019 victory while the Congress will struggle to reach the 50 mark."

Pradeep Gupta said the NDA and the BJP are in a "very good position".

This marks the third edition of the ‘Ideas of India Summit’ hosted by the ABP Network. The two-day long summit intends to dive into ‘The People’s Agenda’ and examine the diversified aspects of the forthcoming elections set to take place in India this year. 

Watch streaming of Ideas of India on Metaverse 

The event is witnessing participation from eminent personalities from several sectors and intends to provide a platform for detailed discussions on the various aspects of Indian society and governance.