More than half of all adults and a third of children, teenagers, and young adults around the world are predicted to be overweight or obese by 2050. India is set to be among the top three countries most affected by this growing crisis, with women and younger populations disproportionately bearing the burden.
Researchers warn that obesity levels are predicted to accelerate rapidly during the remainder of this decade, particularly in lower-income countries.
However, experts say that if governments take urgent action now, there is still time to prevent what they describe as a "profound tragedy".
The findings come from a new study published in The Lancet, covering data from more than 200 countries. Researchers warn that obesity levels are expected to accelerate rapidly during the remainder of this decade, particularly in lower-income countries like India. However, experts stress that if governments take urgent action now, there is still time to prevent what they describe as a "profound tragedy."
India’s Growing Obesity Crisis
In India, obesity rates have surged dramatically in the past three decades. In 1990, an estimated 15 million men and 21 million women in the country were overweight or obese. By 2021, these numbers had risen to 81 million and 98 million, respectively. If current trends continue, India is projected to have 218 million overweight or obese men and 232 million women by 2050. This sharp increase is attributed to factors such as:
- Rapid urbanisation
- Increasing consumption of ultra-processed foods, and
- More sedentary lifestyles.
Between 2009 and 2019, India ranked among the top three countries with the largest annual growth in per capita sales of processed foods and beverages.
Notably, Indian women are expected to bear a greater burden of obesity than men, aligning with global trends. Currently, the prevalence of obesity is estimated at 4% among Indian men compared to 8% among women. Among ever-married women of reproductive age, obesity has tripled from 5% in 1998-99 to 16% in 2019-21.
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The Global Outlook
By 2021, almost half of the global adult population — a billion men and 1.11 billion women aged 25 or older — were overweight or obese. The proportion of both men and women living with these conditions has doubled since 1990. If trends persist, global rates of overweight and obese adults are expected to rise to about 57.4% for men and 60.3% for women by 2050.
In terms of absolute numbers, China (627 million), India (450 million), and the USA (214 million) will have the largest populations of overweight or obese people by 2050. However, due to population growth, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see an over 250% rise, with numbers climbing to 522 million. Nigeria, in particular, stands out, with the number of overweight and obese adults projected to more than triple — from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050 —making it the fourth-largest affected country.
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Obesity’s Impact On Healthcare Systems
The study authors acknowledge that their predictions do not account for the potential impact of new weight loss medications, which could play a significant role in altering these trends in the future. Experts emphasise that without intervention, this surge in obesity could place immense pressure on already vulnerable healthcare systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries like India.
"Governments can use our country-specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies," said Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US.
"The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure," she added.
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Rising Obesity Among Youth
A surge in obesity rates is happening now, particularly among young people. The rates of obesity in children and younger teenagers (rising from 8.8% to 18.1%) and young adults under 25 (from 9.9% to 20.3%) more than doubled between 1990 and 2021. However, by 2050, one in three young people will be affected.
India ranked second globally in overweight and obesity cases among children aged 5-14 years. In 1990, India had 4.6 million boys and 5.4 million girls with obesity, rising to 13 million boys and 12 million girls by 2021. By 2050, these figures are expected to reach 16 million boys and 14 million girls.
For adolescents aged 15-24, India had 4 million males and 3.3 million females living with obesity in 1990. This number grew to 17 million males and 13 million females in 2021, and is projected to increase to 23 million young men and 17 million young women by 2050. Interestingly, while adult obesity trends show women being more affected, among younger populations, the rise has been steeper in males.
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Time To Act To Avert Impending Disaster
Dr Jessica Kerr, co-lead author of the report from the Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Australia, warns that the figures present a serious challenge to healthcare systems in the coming years.
"But if we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible," she said. "Our estimates identify children and adolescents in much of Europe and South Asia living with overweight who should be targeted with obesity prevention strategies. We have also identified large populations, particularly adolescent girls, in North America, Australasia, Oceania, North Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America that are expected to tip over to obesity predominance and require urgent, multifaceted intervention and treatment."
Dr Kerr added that this is essential to avoid the intergenerational transmission of obesity and to prevent serious health conditions and financial and societal burdens for future generations.
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Need For Urgent Action
The study warns that in countries like India, where childhood malnutrition and infectious diseases remain widespread, the rising obesity epidemic adds another layer of complexity to healthcare challenges. Without urgent intervention, the growing prevalence of obesity could worsen existing public health disparities and burden India's already stretched healthcare infrastructure.
While excessive food supply and increasingly sedentary lifestyles contribute to obesity, researchers caution that the precise causes remain unclear. They call for a deeper understanding of obesity’s underlying mechanisms to inform more effective prevention strategies and policies.
As the crisis looms, public health experts stress that a combination of government policies, public awareness campaigns, and structural interventions are crucial to reversing the alarming trends in India and globally.
The writer is a senior independent journalist.