In a few hours from now, the 'exact poll' of Karnataka assembly elections will be out after the counting of votes is taken up for the 224-member House. Early trends are expected to be out by 9 am, and within two or three hours it would be clear if the BJP is returning to power, bucking the trend in recent electoral history, or the Congress wrests the state. A third scenario will be that of a hung assembly if both national parties come a cropper despite scoring big but stopping short of majority, and will have to run to the regional but key third player, the Janata Dal (Secular), and bow to its diktats for a pie in the power.


Chances are, as per most of the plethora of exit polls, the Congress may gain a slender majority, or there will be a hung assembly, which could give even the ruling BJP a shot at power, depending on the whims and fancies of the third player. 


The exit polls show Congress emerging as the largest single party or even crossing the magic number of 113. A couple of surveys have also predicted a very comfortable victory for the Congress, something that is asserted by Congress leader DK Shivakumar, who sticks to a figure of 141. There are two reputed agencies that are giving a comfortable majority to the Congress, keeping the BJP with around 80 and very distant from the magic figure.


Now, the chances of the third player, JD(S), could get squeezed out in the fight of the two national parties as sections of its support base from different caste formations, including Vokkaligas, could shift to the Congress. And also, ironically, the BJP’s aggressive push in the Vokkaliga belt is helping the Congress by cutting into the regional party vote base.


But all these are based on the exit poll figures, and the 'exact poll' results will only be known Saturday. 


Will Congress Make It?


According to an internal survey, the Congress anticipates a narrow victory with around 115 seats, a number that may prove insufficient to establish a stable government. Congress leaders believe a more secure position would require approximately 130 seats. But for good measure, sources said, the Congress has kept its communication channels open with JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy, just in case. 


BJP leaders, from Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai to a host of party spokespersons, have been speaking of a BJP victory with 120 seats, a feat that the BJP has not been able to achieve ever so far. To be fair, even the Congress never achieved such a victory other than when it benefitted from the split in opposition — the latest one during 2013 when BS Yeddyurappa broke away from the BJP to form his party and caused the BJP to crash to a low of 40 seats and the Congress ending up with 120-plus. 


A senior BJP Karnataka leader admitted that former CM Jagdish Shettar and former deputy CM Laxman Savadi defecting to the Congress may adversely impact the party in a few seats. 


In this election, if the Congress stops just short of majority, many would consider it a lost opportunity, as it has had the best chance to dislodge the BJP. The Congress, in fact, ran one of the best election campaigns it has done in recent times anywhere. The campaign was powerful and successful in sending out its message to the masses, from the past several months, so much so that the core local issues it fought the elections on were on the people’s mind with a high recall value. 


The spontaneity and alertness of the Congress campaign strategists was every much in evidence, and the 'PAYCM' and '40 per cent sarkara' campaigns oozed of creativity of the highest order, something any creative advertising agency would be proud of. More importantly, the Congress campaign reflected a unity in approach of its different leaders, and also indicated that the central leadership had left the decision-making about the contours of the fight to its local leadership and remained content with playing just a supporting role, in contrast to the BJP campaign that relied on heavy lifting by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in whose name and face the BJP seemed to fight the state elections. Its main plank on development was its reminder to the people about a double-engine government, and how it would ensure proper progress and prosperity of the state, coupled with warnings of losing privileges with the central government if the state chose a non-BJP government. 


As per the assessment on the ground, as also factoring in the takeaways from the exit polls, the Congress is very much poised to become the largest single party within a striking distance from the magic number of 113. And if the vote percentages and swing factor work in the favour of the Congress, it may even become a clear winner with a substantial majority of its own.


Factors on the ground — good campaigning of the Congress to play on the anti-incumbency sentiments against the Bommai government, the apparent success of its campaign on localised corruption (40 percent commission), fielding good candidates, relatively lesser rebellion in the party ranks, close coordination within the Karnataka Congress leaders and also with the central leadership, strategy of focusing on local issues rather than kick up national ones — helped the Congress stay focused on the task at hand. In short, the Congress behaved and acted like a regional party of Karnataka, stressed on the Kannada pride — speaking for Kannada language, speaking for Nandini and the like — and was able to resonate with the people. 


How BJP Fought The Election


Around this time, the BJP had focused on the double engine government as a campaign theme and told the masses of the massive development that took place in the state due to the central government. The BJP also tried to tinker with the reservation policy, promised reservation to Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities and tried to bring in the Hindu-Muslim angle by withdrawing reservations for Muslims that had been in place for several years. This issue is in courts and put on hold for now after the government sought time, which the Congress said exposed the veracity of the move. 


Other than the corruption, most of the voters interviewed on the many television channels said they were most concerned with huge price rise and unemployment, besides governance issues. Overall, there appeared to be a universal dislike for the Bommai government and its performance. 
While the issues as well as voting preferences for the Lok Sabha elections would be different, with people saying they may vote for the BJP and Modi in the Lok Sabha polls, but would not prefer a return of the Bommai government this time.


This sentiment is in tune with Karnataka's electoral history of around three decades that it has not voted in the incumbent. With even electoral history against the BJP, it is surely facing a gigantic task to come close to the magic number, but it is expected to finish a poor second behind the Congress with a difference of at least 20 or more seats. 


With hung assembly a possibility, the JD(S) by managing to just about hold its own in its strongholds could become the kingmaker that both the BJP and the Congress will have to run to. Already, JD(S) chief HD Kumaraswamy is setting the agenda saying "this time support will be given to that party that accepts the agenda of Janata Dal (S)”. 


The JD(S) camp made it public that they have been approached by both BJP and the Congress. Tanveer Ahmed, JD(S) spokesperson, said the decision has been taken, and will be announced "at the right time". While the later distanced itself from the remark, the BJP had already denied that it had any talk with the JD(S). Union minister and Karnataka BJP leader Shobha Karandlaje asserted that there is “no question" of forming a coalition with the JD(S) and claimed that the party is "sure to get 120 seats". 


The JD(S) is, however, confident that “nobody can form the government in the state" without them. "We know we performed enough to be a part of the government."


We will know soon.


The author is a Bengaluru-based senior journalist. 


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