Cong Likely To See Gains In MP, T'gana. BJP May Perform Well In Rajasthan — ABP-CVoter Projections For 5 States

Assembly Election Opinion Polls 2023: After the election schedule, ABP News in association with CVoter released findings of an opinion poll to reveal the mood of voters in the five poll-bound states.

The Election Commission of India on Monday announced the schedule for assembly polls in five states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram. The polling will commence on November 7 and conclude on November 30. Voting will occur in a single phase in MP, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram, and in two phases in Chhattisgarh. With the announcement of the election schedule, ABP News in association with CVoter released findings of an opinion poll to reveal the mood of voters in the five poll-bound states.

According to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to make significant gains in the upcoming Rajasthan elections. The survey suggests that the BJP could secure anywhere between 127 to 137 seats out of the 200-member Assembly, a leap from their 2018 performance when they secured 38 per cent of the votes. Their vote share is predicted to increase to 46 per cent.

In contrast, the Congress is projected to win between 59 to 69 seats, holding a vote share of 42 per cent. The majority mark for forming the government in Rajasthan stands at 101 seats.

In Madhya Pradesh, the ABP-CVoter opinion poll suggests a closely fought battle. Out of the 230 assembly seats, the Congress could secure between 113 to 125 seats, while the BJP is likely to secure 104 to 116 seats. The ruling BJP has a marginal edge with a 0.1 per cent higher vote share compared to the Congress. The Congress is projected to secure a 44.6 per cent vote share, while the BJP is estimated to receive 44.7 per cent. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may secure 2.1 per cent of the votes, and 8.6 per cent could go to other parties.

Chhattisgarh is gearing up for a fierce political battle between the Congress and the BJP. Out of the total 90 seats, the BJP is expected to secure 39 to 45 seats, while the Congress is anticipated to win 45 to 51 seats. Other parties are projected to win only 0 to 2 seats.

In terms of vote share, the ABP-CVoter survey indicates that the Congress may gain over 45 per cent of the vote, marking a 2.2 per cent increase. The BJP, on the other hand, is projected to secure 43 per cent, showing a significant upswing of over 10 per cent. Other parties are expected to secure 11 per cent of the votes, marking a decline of nearly 13 per cent.

In Telangana, the Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) faces a tough contest with the Congress. The BRS is projected to secure 43 to 55 seats, while the Congress is expected to win 48 to 60 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to secure only 5 to 11 seats, despite the campaigning efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

As per the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress may gain nearly 39 per cent of the vote share, a significant upswing of 10.5 per cent. The ruling BRS is projected to receive 37 per cent, indicating a decline of 9.4 per cent in vote share. The BJP is also expected to secure 16 per cent of the votes, marking an increase of 9.3 per cent.

Mizoram appears poised for a closely contested election, with no party securing a clear majority, according to the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) is projected to win 13 to 17 seats, the Indian National Congress (INC) 10 to 14 seats, the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) 9 to 13 seats, and Others 1 to 3 seats.

Vote share projections indicate that the MNF, with 37.7 per cent in the last election, is projected to receive 30.5 per cent. INC, which had 29.9 per cent previously, is expected to secure 28.3 per cent. ZPM, a rising force with 22.9 per cent in the last election, may secure 27.1 per cent. Other parties, holding 9.5 per cent previously, could garner 14.2 per cent.

The counting of votes and announcement of results will take place on December 3 for all five states, completing the polling schedule on December 5.

[Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters (sample size 89,725). The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.]