Ahead of the November 17 assembly election in Madhya Pradesh, an opinion poll conducted by ABP-CVoter has suggested a change of regime in the state. The ABP-CVoter survey hints at the Congress is tantalisingly close to achieving a simple majority in Madhya Pradesh and will likely take away the Hindi heartland state from BJP. The opinion polls numbers are not good for the ruling BJP which has a mammoth task of saving its position in the state, while the Congress attempts to take the state from the saffron party’s control.
ABP News along with CVoter spoke to the voters of Madhya Pradesh and received their responses. Opinion poll figures show that out of 230 assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh, a maximum of 113 to 125 seats can go to the Congress. The BJP is likely to get 104 to 116 seats.
As per the data, the ruling BJP is 0.1 per cent ahead of the Congress in terms of vote share. Congress is projected to get a 44.6 per cent vote share and BJP 44.7 per cent. BSP may get 2.1 per cent votes. At the same time, 8.6 per cent of the votes can go to others.
The Election Commission has announced that the 230-member assembly will go to polls in a single phase on November 17 as the BJP fights to retain power in the state and the Congress aims at a comeback. The gazette notification will be issued on October 21 and candidates will be able to file their nominations till October 30. The date for scrutiny of nominations has been set for October 31 and the last date for withdrawal of candidature will be November 2.
The high-stakes battle is already witnessing a fierce competition among parties to offer freebies and guarantees, a scramble for tribal, OBC, women votes with a touch of Hindutva politics.
Known as the 'heart of India' for its geographic location on the map, the state has a long history of bipolar politics, dominated by the Congress and the BJP, Madhya Pradesh but all set to see the AAP making an entry in the upcoming state elections.
While the BJP is pinning its hopes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal with their “MP Ke Man Mein Modi” slogan and theme song of electioneering focused on him, Delhi CM and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal is pulling all stops to ensure an impressive performance in the state.
Meanwhile, four-term BJP chief minister Chouhan (64) and rival Nath (76) are fighting the toughest electoral battle of their political careers.
The BJP has already completed its ‘Jan Ashirwad Yatras’ (marches to seek people’s blessings) and come up with the slogan ‘abki bar 150 par’ (victory in more than 150 seats this time), news agency PTI reported.
In the November 2018 polls, the Congress had won 114 seats, while the BJP finished second with 109.
Even though Nath proved his mettle by leading the Congress to power last time around and then becoming the Chief Minister, he could not complete his term due to a rebellion by MLAs supporting now Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia.
(Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters (sample size 38,343). The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval. )