New Delhi: The second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic may have an adverse effect on the Indian economy for a long time and once again export will become the basis of revival, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In a report titled 'APAC Economic Outlook: Delta Constraints', Moody's Analytics said that social distancing is having an impact on the current quarter, but the economic revival will resume by the end of the year.
According to the report, the delta variety of Covid-19 is now one of the factors adversely affecting the economies of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, but the effect of restrictions on movement in the region was the same in the second quarter of last year. The economic slowdown will not be as severe.
The share of exports in the economy in India is relatively low. Higher prices of commodities have increased the value of exports. This is the one factor that helped India get back on track after the devastating first wave of Covid-19.
The report said, "When the second wave is now moving towards its end, its harm can be seen on the economy for a long time. The reason being small businesses getting adversely affected by this epidemic. At the same time, exports will once again be the basis for revival.
According to Moody's Analytics, India seems to be struggling to speed up its vaccination campaign. It said that the global economic recovery is continuing at a solid pace, but it does not appear to be reflected in the short term in some countries in Asia, especially in Southeast Asia. Reason being, the spread of the delta version of Covid-19 across the region and social distancing restrictions to prevent it.
According to Moody's Analytics, the global GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate will be 5 to 5.5 per cent this year. This is more than the expected growth rate of 3 percent. The reason for this is the revival sustained since last year's pandemic-related softening.