CEA Nageswaran Says FY23 GDP Numbers Likely To Be Revised Upwards Next Year

India's GDP growth rate declined for the second consecutive quarter in October-December (Q3FY23), coming in at 4.4 per cent, according to the data released on Tuesday

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said that current year data when revised next year would go upward rather than downward, pointing towards the latest lower GDP growth rate of the December quarter, released on February 28, reported MoneyControl.

CEA Nageswaran said, “Given the high-frequency indicators and the pace they are recovering, I believe current year data when revised next year would go upward rather than downward.”

India's GDP growth rate declined for the second consecutive quarter in October-December (Q3FY23), coming in at 4.4 per cent, according to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Tuesday. The latest quarterly growth number at 4.4 per cent is lower than the 6.3 per cent growth that was seen in the second quarter of 2022-23.

Speaking with the press, CEA said, “It is not that the recovery is becoming weaker. Recovery will stabilise at some point because the base has become bigger and you will come to a steady growth rate in which medium-term factors will become important.”

The government data also included the second advance estimate for the growth rate for the entire year, which remained at 7 per cent. 

The National Statistical Office (NSO) revised GDP growth data for the past three years -- 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 and also released the second advance estimates of GDP for 2022-23.

While the growth rate for 2021-22 has been revised up by 40 basis points to 9.1 per cent, from 8.7 per cent,  the GDP for 2020-21 (Covid impacted year) to has been revised upwards to (-) 5.8 per cent, from (-) 6.6 per cent. For 2019-20 also, the growth has been revised upwards to 3.9 per cent, from 3.7 per cent.

"The data in India is not quarterly, seasonally adjusted. We need to look at three years' data from 2019-20 to 2022-23 for better comparison," Nageswaran said.

"We have been growing below potential in the last few years. The medium-term potential is between 6.5-7 percent as we have two important tail-winds in our favor - financial sector balance sheet, which is well prepared, and the digital public infrastructure," he added.