BLOG | How MP By-Poll Results Have Bolstered CM Shivraj's Clout In The Central State

Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has emerged stronger after 28 assembly by-polls held in the state.

(Photo by PRAKASH SINGH / AFP)

Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has emerged stronger after 28 assembly by-polls held in the state.

Pitted against Kamal Nath, following Jyotiraditya Scindia led defection of Congress MLAs, Chouhan initially appeared getting over-shadowed in a Nath versus Scindia battle of supremacy in the central Indian state. However, in the final outcome on November 10 verdict when the BJP piped the Congress in 19 out of 28 assembly by-elections, Chouhan rose as somewhat more sure-footed and sturdier, effectively putting an end to an eerie round speculation that he would stay on as Madhya Pradesh chief minister. the speculation that began from both internal and opponents’ camps, was based on a premise that either Nath-led Congress would win half or more by-polls seats or Scindia would deliver trailblazer of a result from 16 assembly seats falling under Gwalior-Chambal region, considered his fiefdom. In both scenarios, Chouhan’s position was thought to be vulnerable. However, nothing of this sort happened.

The Congress had to live with a single digit figure of nine seats while the break-up in the Gwalior Chambal region was of 9-7 in favour of Scindia-BJP candidates – impressive but not a clean sweep or huge. Chouhan was able to score over Nath, state Congress chief and leader of the opposition in wresting bulk of the seats -- 10 out of the 12 that were outside the Gwalior Chambal region. This was an extraordinary feat as virtually of these seats were won by the Congress in November-December 2018 state assembly polls.

The Congress however, had a satisfaction of winning seats of Gwalior [east], Morena, Dabra etc considered Scindia’s prestige. In Dabra, a vocal Imrati Devi lost polls who was in the eye of a storm over following Nath calling her as an "item." Imrati, who had defected from the Congress to the BJP, had been asking for deputy chief minister’s post.

A major take-away Madhya Pradesh by-polls has been margin of victory and defeat. Seat after seat, the BJP posted win by huge margins. At Sanchi, it won by 63135 votes, in Sanwer, the BJP left the Congress behind by 53728 while in Bamori, the BJP romped home with 52747. There was similar story at Surkhi, Anup-pur, Badnawar where the victory margins were 40524, 36071 and 31971 respectively. In another twelve seats, the BJP won by over 10,000 votes.

Considering that all these seats were held by the Congress less than two years ago, the margin of victory has made many sit up and wonder why there was such a fierce and vocal support for the BJP? Several arguments can be marshalled such as former Congress MLAs providing impetus to the BJP campaign and a sense of demoralization in the Congress after Scindia’s defection.

But there is another factor – Shivraj Chouhan factor. Much as Lok Sabha polls of 2019 reiterated voter’s faith in prime minister Narendra Modi, Chouhan is trusted by the voters in Madhya Pradesh. While the Congress election campaign focussed on its erstwhile MLAs becoming ‘traitors,’ Chouhan, throughout the bypolls campaign period, kept reminding the voters about previous BJP rule where he had been a central figure since 2005. Populist schemes like Kanyadan, Ladli Lakshmi, Sambal, tirath yatra, yojna etc perhaps kept playing on voter’s mind.

Voters were also aware that their vote had a potential to make or mar Chouhan regime. In some ways, they gave a resounding verdict in favour of Chouhan’s continuation.

Here is a table with the margin of victories.

• 01. Sanchi-BJP-63135
• 02. Sanwer-BJP-53728
• 03. Bamori-BJP- 52747
• 04. Surkhi-BJP-40524
• 05. Anup Pur-BJP-36071
• 06. Badnawar-BJP-31971
• 07. Gwalior-BJP-31264
• 08. Suwasara-BJP-29151
• 09. Nepanagar-BJP-26208
• 10. Pohri-BJP-22254
• 11. Mandhata-BJP-21991
• 12. Mungawali-BJP-21044
• 13. Bada Malehra-BJP-17399
• 14. Ashok Nagar-BJP-14532
• 15. Hat Pipaliya-BJP-13817
• 16. Ambah-BJP-13761
• 17. Jaoura-BJP-13446
• 18. Mehgaon-BJP-11833
• 19. Bhander-BJP-00051
• 20. Sumawali-Congress-10746
• 21. Morena-Congress-05641
• 22. Dimni-Congress-26178
• 23. Gohad- Congress-11958
• 24.Gwalior East-Congress-04084
• 25. Dabra-Congress-07568
• 26. Karera-Congress-30592
• 27. Bayawara-Congress-12132
• 28. Aagar-Congress-01947

Total seats where bypolls were held in Madhya Pradesh : 28

Congress: 9;  BJP 19

[Author-Journalist Rasheed Kidwai is a visiting Fellow of the Observer Research Foundation. He tracks government and politics and considered a specialist on Congress party affairs.]

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