Global Smartphone Shipments Set To Hit Decade Low, But Apple May Take Top Spot

Premium and ultra-premium smartphones are in a good spot as the segment is witnessing growth globally and that favours companies like Apple.

This year is on track to be the worst year for global smartphone shipments in a decade as Asia stands as one of the major hurdles to positive growth and economic uncertainties continue in China. Worldwide smartphone shipments in 2023 are forecast to decline 6 per cent to 1.15 billion units, the lowest in 10 years, says Counterpoint Research’s latest 'Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast'. However, premium and ultra-premium smartphones are in a good spot as the segment is witnessing growth globally and that favours companies like Apple which have models heavily weighted in the higher segments.

“There’s been a decoupling between what’s happening in the economy and consumers buying phones. So far this year it’s been record low upgrades across all carriers,” Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director for North America, Counterpoint Research, said in a statement.

“But we’re watching Q4 with interest because the iPhone 15 launch is a window for carriers to steal high-value customers. And with that big iPhone 12 installed base up for grabs promos are going to be aggressive, leaving Apple in a good spot.”

Apple May Shine Bright Even As The Overall Smartphone Industry Declines

This year could mark the start of a new era for Apple as a resilient premium market and strong showing in the US could help it become number one globally in terms of annual shipments for the first time ever.

“It’s the closest Apple’s been to the top spot.  We’re talking about a spread that’s literally a few days’ worth of sales,” muses Fieldhack.

“Assuming Apple doesn’t run into production problems like it did last year, it’s really a toss-up at this point.”

Apart from China, the US also continues to be a major drag on global recovery, with a disappointing first half (H1) setting it up for double-digit full-year declines. Despite strength in the jobs market and inflation falling, consumers are hesitant to upgrade their devices, pushing replacement rates for the US and globally to record highs.

Moreover, regional macro risks are extending smartphone replacement rates to record levels. According to Counterpoint's estimates, there is elevated risk of a delayed recovery into 2024.