Warming due to climate change has made the monsoon in India violent and erratic, leading to increase in the risk of flooding through shifts in rainfall patterns, an analysis by the World Meteorological Organisation and the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service has found.
The analysis has also revealed that July 2023 has become the hottest month ever recorded, with average global temperature surpassing all previous records.
The study has found that the increase in rainfall intensity and frequency of heatwaves in India are directly linked to rising sea and surface temperatures.
An increase in warming has infused additional moisture into the atmosphere, leading to unprecedented weather events, as was recently seen in North Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Himachal Pradesh has been the worst hit, being battered by heavy rainfall, leading to flash floods and damage to infrastructure.
Since the onset of the monsoon on June 24, 168 people have died in rain-related incidents and road accidents, as per data from the state emergency response centre. Around 652 houses were completely damaged and the state has suffered losses to the tune of Rs 5,350 crore, PTI reported.
Weather Events Now Less Predictable
What has compounded matters is that such weather events have become less predictable, posing another set of challenges apart from an increase in monsoon variability due to rising heat.
Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and lead IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) author, said monsoon rainfall patterns over India have seen a "climatic shift" in recent decades. He warned that such erratic patterns would have a huge impact on the agriculture in the country.
"The most significant change is that instead of having moderate rains spread out through the monsoon season, we have long dry periods intermittent with short spells of heavy rains. Hence this causes floods and droughts in the same season and occasionally in the same region or different parts of India," Dr Koll said in a statement.
Calling for urgent action, Dr Koll said adaptation at local (panchayat) levels should go parallel with mitigation at global and national levels.
"Instead of waiting for weather forecasts every year, we need to disaster-proof locally, based on sub-district wise assessment," he further said.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President (meteorology and climate change, Skymet Weather, said a delayed monsoon onset and sluggish progress could not stop the extreme rain events seen in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, and Gujarat.
He said climate change would continue to increase monsoon variability to another level with each passing year.
"Thus, the connection between climate change and extreme weather events has become stronger. Warming of oceans, especially the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, has led to increased incursion of moisture in the atmosphere over India, especially over Indo-Gangetic Plains. This has increased the capacity of air to hold more moisture, leading to extremely heavy rainfall," Palawat said in a statement.