July 2023 May Have Been The Warmest Month In 1,20,000 Years: Analysis By German Scientist

July 6 was the hottest day on record, followed by July 5 and 7, according to data from the World Meteorological Organization. The record for the hottest day was previously set in August 2016. 

July 2023 may set a global temperature record as the hottest July ever, and the hottest month in 1,20,000 years, according to an analysis by German scientist Dr Karsten Haustein from Leipzig University. The current warmest July is July 2019, but July 2023 is likely to have a global average near-surface temperature about 0.2°C greater than that in July 2019, preliminary analysis suggests. 

The first three weeks of July constitute the warmest three-week period on record, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), funded by the European Union, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said. 

July 6 was the hottest day on record, followed by July 5 and 7, according to the WMO data. The record for the hottest day was previously set in August 2016. 

July 2023 set to be about 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels

The analysis performed by Dr Haustein, and the WMO data also show that July 2023 will be about 1.5°C ± 0.2°C above pre-industrial levels. The aim of the Paris Agreement is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above industrial levels. The Paris Agreement uses the reference period 1850-1900 to represent pre-industrial temperature, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The analysis was calibrated against data from NASA Goddard's Global Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). However, since NASA GISTEMP started recording temperatures from 1880, data for the years between 1850 and 1880 were estimated using University of California Berkeley's Earth global temperature data as reference. 

The analysis states that such warm conditions existed during the Eemian warm period, which began 1,27,000 years ago and extended to 1,06,000 years ago. 

Since 1850, global average temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. The United Nations (UN) has said that due to current government policies, an average temperature rise of 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels is likely. Therefore, it is important to set more stringent targets and implement stricter plans for major polluters at the COP28 Climate Summit to be held in Dubai this year. 

According to the UN Climate Change, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43 per cent by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

The WMO data has said that during the first and third week of July this year, global mean temperature temporarily exceeded the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. 

However, this is not the first time the 1.5°C temperature threshold has been temporarily exceeded. The value was earlier exceeded in 2016 and 2020. But this is the first time the 1.5°C threshold has been crossed in the Northern Hemisphere summer.

El Niño may have contributed to July 2023 being the hottest month ever

On July 4, 2023, the WMO declared El Niño in the tropical Pacific. El Niño arrived in this region for the first time in seven years, and has set the stage for a likely rise in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns. El Niño is one of the reasons behind July 2023 being the hottest month ever. Another major factor contributing to this warmth is continued greenhouse gas emissions due to anthropogenic activities. 

It is believed that there will be more record-warm months up until at least early 2024. 

The WMO has said that since May, the global average sea surface temperature has been well above what was previously observed at this time of the year, and this has also contributed to the exceptionally warm July. 

Due to the surge in global average temperatures, heatwaves have occurred in large areas of North America, Asia and Europe, and wildfires erupted in several countries, including Canada and Greece. The extreme heat waves have had a debilitating impact on the health of all living beings, and adversely affected the environment and economies. 

There is a 98 per cent probability that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest year on record, and a 66 per cent probability of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one of the five years, the WMO has predicted. 

Extreme weather events in July, apart from record heat

Not only was July a month of record heat, but also witnessed excessive rains and floods, including in India, Pakistan, Japan, China, South Korea and the US.

Rainfall level in northwest India in July was about 60 per cent greater than the typical level. Himachal Pradesh and Punjab received about twice the amount of rainfall that normally occurs in July. 

On July 27, Mumbai received 1557.8 millimetres of rainfall, making July 2023 the wettest July ever for the city. 

Flooding occurred in the northeastern, eastern and northern districts of Delhi from July 12 to 14, causing the Yamuna river to exceed the 1978 levels.

According to Dr Haustein, drastic changes in the climate can lead to unparalleled marine and continental heat waves, and result in temperature extremes in different regions of the world, that exceed all records. During the past few weeks, China, North America, Southern Europe, and the North Atlantic Ocean witnessed record or near-record temperatures.