There Is 98% Chance That 2023-2027 Will Be Warmest Five-Year Period On Record: UN

The United Nations has said that there is a 98 per cent probability that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest ever.

The United Nations (UN) has said that there is a 98 per cent chance that 2023-2027 will be the warmest five-year-period on record. The UN also said in a statement that dated May 17, 2023, that there is a 98 per cent probability that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest ever. The update was issued by the World Meteorological Organization.

According to the UN, there is a 66 per cent probability that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. 

Quoting Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, the statement said that this will have "far-reaching repercussions for health, food safety, water management and the environment, and that everyone needs to be prepared. 

The surge in global temperatures will be driven by a naturally occurring El Niño weather patterns, and heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

The UN said in the statement that there is a 98 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will beF the temperature record set in 2016. There was an exceptionally strong El Niño that year. 

Since there is a 60 per cent chance of El Niño conditions occurring during May to July 2023, global temperatures will probably rise in 2024. This is because El Niño causes global temperatures to increase in the year after it develops. 

The temperature anomaly (departure from long-term average or reference value) in the Arctic is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global anomaly expected when considering the next five northern hemisphere extended winters, the UN said. The reference value has been calculated from the 1991-2020 long-term average temperature in the Arctic. These anomalies occur because warming in the Arctic is disproportionately high. 

Compared to the 1991 to 2020 average rainfall, the predicted rainfall patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average suggest that there will be increased rinCll in northern Europe, northern Siberia, Sahel and Alaska, and reduced rainfall during these months for each of the five years over the Amazon, and parts of Australia.