NASA has downgraded the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 0.28 per cent, way lower than the 1.5 per cent it had predicted only days ago, and certainly far more heartening than the 1-in-67, which came after the first scary high warning of a 1-in-32 chance — the highest odds yet of collision.


In its latest post just before midnight on February 20, NASA official handle wrote: "New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues." 






NASA has a dedicated page on its website to explain everything that its researchers have gathered and collated about Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 that is estimated be about 130-300 feet across (40-90 metres) and had been initially predicted to likely impact Earth on December 22, 2032.


A few days ago, it was learnt that India lies in the 'Risk Zone' or potential risk corridor along with a few other countries — if Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit Earth. The Asteroid YR4 is also being called 'The City Destroyer' as it is being estimated that it will pass very close to Earth in December 2032. 


When Will The Impact Possibility Drop To Zero?


NASA says that asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a very small chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. As more observations are collected, and that data is added to the orbit calculations, it is likely this probability will drop to zero. 


"The impact probability for this asteroid will continue to be reassessed as astronomers continue to track it. By April 2025, the object will be so far away that it will become too faint to be detected by Earth-based telescopes. Further updates will not be possible until 2028 when 2024 YR4 approaches Earth again and becomes bright enough to be detected," says the NASA statement.


ALSO READ ON ABP LIVE | Good News From NASA: Risk Of 'City Destroyer' Asteroid's Impact In 2032 Reduced Further


How Much Damage Can An Asteroid Impact Cause? 


The damage caused by an impacting asteroid depends greatly on the exact size and composition of the asteroid. NASA nor any other space agency cannot at the moment predict the exact size of 2024 YR4 with certainty. But at whatever rough estimates are being made of its size at the moment, an airburst is a likely scenario for its size range. 


Scenario 1: If asteroid YR24 were to enter the atmosphere over the ocean, models indicate that air-bursting objects of this size would be unlikely to cause significant tsunami, either from the middle of the ocean or even nearer shore. 


Scenario 2: If the asteroid entered the atmosphere over a populated region, an airburst of an object on the smaller side of the size range, about 130 - 200 feet (40-60 metres) could shatter windows or cause minor structural damage across a city. 


Scenario 3: An asteroid about 300 feet (90 metres) in size, which is much less likely, could cause more severe damage, potentially collapsing residential structures across a city and shattering windows across larger regions.  


Scenario 4: What would happen if an asteroid that is a kilometre in diameter hits the Earth? The Senate Committee on Science and Transportation (Subcommittee on Science and Space) in a hearing on space debris and asteroid threats heard that such an impact would likely end the human civilisation.


ALSO READ ON ABP LIVE | All About 2024 YR4 — Giant Asteroid Top On NASA-ESA Risk List 


Is Earth A Sitting Duck For Such Disasters?


There are objects in space that are big enough to cause truly global devastation such as total extinction events. But NASA says that the good news is that we found more than 95% of them. Dr James Green, the former chief scientist at NASA, says: "Today, we do not have a complete inventory of all the possible impactors. There are almost certainly a decent-sized asteroids out there that is going to pose an impact threat to the planet."


NASA scientists say that its scientists and those on the worldwide planetary defence community have been endeavouring to find them all.


There is a huge number of researchers and observers sitting observing and studying the space from across all over the globe. Finding asteroids, tracking them, calculating their orbits.  


"Asteroids don't care about international boundaries. It does not matter where the asteroid impacts, it affects the entire humanity," say those on the watch. "The day is coming when Earth will get impacted...The dinosaurs went extinct because they did not have a space program. However, we humans do have one."


Is It Possible To Deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4? 


On the chances of humans (space scientists) attempting to use a spacecraft similar to DART, NASA says a kinetic impactor spacecraft like NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is one asteroid deflection technique that could be used to address a potentially hazardous asteroid in the future. Each asteroid is unique, and deflection would depend on the asteroid’s size, physical properties, orbit, and discovery warning time. 


"For 2024 YR4, we are still in the information gathering stage. The likelihood of an Earth impact is still very low and will likely decrease as we gain more observations, so it is premature to speculate on potential deflection techniques," NASA has declared.