NASA has good news about asteroid 2024 YR4. New observations taken overnight on February 19-20 have lowered the chance that the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032, to just 0.28% (about 1 in 370 odds). This means there is a 99.72% chance that the giant space rock coming towards Earth in great speed will miss the planet.


The new data shared by NASA also shows that the chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon has risen slightly to 1%. Scientists used a special impact search technique called IOBS and looked at many observations made over more than 57 days. These observations have helped narrow down the possible path of the asteroid.


The asteroid was first spotted in late December 2024, and astronomers have been closely monitoring its path ever since. 


Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about 55 metres (180 feet) in diameter and weighs around 220 million kilograms. If it were to hit Earth, it would release an estimated energy of 7.8 mega tonnes. Due to its size and risk perception, 2024 YR4 has earned itself a name — “the city destroyer". 


However, given the latest calculations, such an event remains highly unlikely.






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India On 'Risk Corridor'  


Earlier, NASA had reported a higher impact probability of 3.1%, which was the highest ever for an object of this size.  


It had also been reported earlier that scientists identified a "risk corridor" for asteroid 2024 YR4, covering regions that could be affected in case of a collision, and India was part of this zone. The risk zone stretches from northern South America across the Pacific to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa, a WIRED report said, quoting David Rankin from NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, adding that countries potentially at risk include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia.


However, as more observations were made after the full Moon (when the sky is dark enough for telescopes to see faint objects), the risk was reduced, NASA said. Each night of observation makes the predictions more accurate, and NASA’s team will continue to monitor the asteroid closely, according to the space agency.


NASA is also preparing for its upcoming Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, set to launch no earlier than September 2027. This mission will help discover more asteroids by detecting their heat in the infrared, offering another way to watch the skies for potential threats.