US Presidential Elections 2024: With US President Joe Biden ending his reelection bid and backing his Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic party's face for the US Presidential Elections, all eyes are on opinion polls pitting Harris' appeal against Republican candidate Donald Trump. A series of polls conducted following the June 27 presidential debate indicate that Kamala Harris performed comparably to Biden against former US president Trump, who has maintained a narrow lead for several months. Recent surveys following an attempted assassination of Trump reveal similar trends.
Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday after resisting calls to step aside and launching efforts to revitalise his candidacy post-debate. This included media interviews, rallying Congressional allies, and publicly rejecting calls for his resignation.
Harris has shown stronger polling numbers than other potential Democratic replacements for Biden. However, these polls do not account for the potential shifts in voter perceptions that could arise from extensive campaigning by lesser-known candidates who lack Harris' national recognition.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week found Trump leading Harris by three points (51%-48%), and leading Biden by five points (52%-47%) among likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.7 points. In contrast, an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from July 13 to 16, and released Thursday, reported that Biden would lose to Trump 41% to 43%, while Harris would perform slightly worse, losing 39% to 44%. The margin of error for this poll was 3.1 points.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted after the attempted assassination of Trump, showed both Biden and Harris in a virtual statistical tie with Trump. However, 69% of respondents viewed Biden as too old to serve in government, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.
Democratic polling firm Bendixen & Amandi released a survey on July 9, first obtained by Politico, which showed Harris narrowly defeating Trump 42% to 41%, with a margin of error of 3.1 points. In this poll, Biden, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and California Governor Gavin Newsom all trailed Trump, Forbes reported.
A YouGov poll conducted from July 3 to 6 revealed that more Democrats and independents leaning Democrat preferred Biden over Harris as the nominee, by 47% to 32%, with 21% uncertain. The poll's margin of error was 4 points.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on July 2 found Harris trailing Trump by one point, while Biden was tied with Trump. Potential Biden replacements like Whitmer, Newsom, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker fared worse than both Biden and Harris against Trump. The margin of error for this poll was 3.5 points.
In a CNN/SSRS poll conducted from June 28 to 30, Harris outperformed Biden and three other potential Democratic candidates in a hypothetical matchup against Trump, but still trailed Trump by two points, while Biden lagged by six points. The margin of error for this poll was 3.5 points.
According to the New York Times, the recent polls have Harris trail Trump by two percentage points nationally on average, 46% to 48% which is an improvement over Biden’s position who trailed Trump by three percentage points in the polling average, 47% to 44%.
| Poll | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Lead | Dates | Margin Of Error |
| CBS-YouGov | 48 | 51 | Trump by 3 | July 16 - 18 | +/- 2.7 |
| Reuters-Ipsos | 44 | 44 | Tie | Jul-16 | +/- 3.3 |
| Economist/YouGov | 39 | 44 | Trump by 5 | July 13 - 16 | +/- 3 |
| NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist | 50 | 49 | Harris by 1 | July 9 - 10 | +/- 3 |
| Fox News | 48 | 49 | Trump by 1 | July 7 - 10 | +/- 3.5 |
| NBC News | 45 | 47 | Trump by 2 | July 7 - 9 | +/- 3.3 |
| Economist/YouGov | 38 | 42 | Trump by 4 | July 7 - 9 | +/- 2 |
| Post-ABC-Ipsos | 49 | 47 | Harris by 2 | July 5 - 9 | +/- 3.1 |
| Reuters-Ipsos | 42 | 43 | Trump by 1 | July 1 - 2 | +/- 3.5 |
| Yahoo News/YouGov | 45 | 47 | Trump by 2 | June 28 - July 1 | +/- 3.5 |
| CNN | 45 | 47 | Trump by 2 | June 28 - 30 | +/- 3.7
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Political analysts have noted that these numbers reflect a polarised electorate. This early lead underscores Trump's persistent popularity despite his controversial tenure and subsequent defeat in the 2020 election. Trump's base remains robust, particularly among white voters without college degrees, while Harris faces challenges in consolidating support across different demographic groups.
The poll also sheds light on the potential hurdles Harris might encounter within her own party. Some Democratic voters express concerns about her ability to unify the party and appeal to a broader constituency, which could impact her prospects in the primaries.
US Presidential Elections: Hillary Clinton & Michelle Obama Outperform Trump In Polls
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is not among the commonly discussed potential Biden replacements, would defeat Trump by a slightly wider margin of 43% to 41%, according to the Bendixen & Amandi poll. A hypothetical ticket with Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee and Harris as her vice presidential running mate would outperform other Biden-replacement scenarios, defeating Trump 43% to 40%. Former US First Lady Michelle Obama would also outperform Harris, Biden, and other potential replacements against Trump, leading Trump 50% to 39%, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Despite Harris being the most likely replacement for Biden, some political analysts and prominent Democrats have suggested a "mini primary" where candidates could compete for Biden's delegates through a series of high-profile party-sponsored events such as debates and town halls, Forbes reported.
Harris has several advantages, including name recognition and the ability to inherit Biden’s $91 million campaign war chest since she is already on his ticket. However, she faces risks such as negative reviews of her vice-presidential performance, reports of dysfunction in her office, and relatively low approval ratings.
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US Presidential Elections: How Does Kamala Harris Perform At State Level?
Harris has seen similar success in state-level polls as in US national polls. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from July 9 to 12 found Harris faring better than Biden in two battleground states, Pennsylvania and Virginia. In Pennsylvania, Biden trailed Trump by 3 points while Harris trailed by 1 point. In Virginia, Harris led Trump by 5 points, compared to Biden’s 3-point lead. However, an Emerson College poll released on Thursday in Virginia found both Biden and Harris trailing Trump by 2 points.
The surveys highlight the importance of key battleground states in determining the US Presidential election's outcome. States such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which were pivotal in the 2020 election, are likely to play a crucial role again in 2024.