UK Elections 2024: The British opinion polls released on Saturday projected a harsh picture for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party. One of the pollsters has even warned that Sunak’s party faced “electoral extinction” in the polls slated for July 4. The opinion polls come just over halfway through the poll campaign, shortly before voters begin to receive postal ballots.
Rishi Sunak took many of his own party members by surprise when he announced early elections on May 22. According to Reuters, the polls came against widespread expectations that the British PM would wait until later in the year to allow more time for living standards to recover after the highest inflation in 40 years.
UK Elections 2024: What Opinion Polls Say
Market research company Savanta showed 46% support for Keir Starmer's Labour Party, which was up by 2 points on the previous poll five days earlier, while as far as the Conservatives are concerned, the support dropped 4 points to 21%, as per the Reuters report cited above.
The opinion poll was conducted from June 12 to June 14 for the Sunday Telegraph. The Labour Party’s 25-point lead was the biggest since the premiership of Sunak's predecessor, Liz Truss.
Political research director at Savanta, Chris Hopkins, predicted an "electoral extinction" for the Conservative Party. "Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party," he was quoted by Reuters.
According to a separate poll by Survation, published by the Sunday Times, the Conservatives could bag only 72 seats in the 650-member House of Commons. If the opinion polls turn out to be true, the Conservative Party will hit its lowest point in its nearly 200-year history. The poll projected 456 seats for the Labour Party. The poll was conducted from May 31 to June 13.
The Survation poll had Labour on 40% and the Conservatives on 24%, while former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage's Reform UK party, a right-wing challenger to the Conservatives, was on 12%, according to Reuters. A poll by Opinium for Sunday's Observer also showed Labour at 40%, the Conservatives at 23%, and Reform at 14%.