Mobility Restrictions By Italy Saved 2 Lakh Hospitalisations: Study

By analyzing the contagion map, scientists have found that the epidemic has initially spread quite rapidly along with the main transportation infrastructures of their country

Image: AP/PTI(AP18-04-2020_000258B)

Rome: In a preventive measure against the deadly Coronavirus (COVID-19), mobility restrictions implemented by the Italian government have avoided at least 200,000 hospitalizations and reduced the contagion transmission by 45 percent, say researchers. "If the restrictions had not been implemented, the hospitalizations would have been about 200,000 thus exceeding our hospitals'' capacity," said study lead author Marino Gatto, Professor at Politecnico di Milano, a University in Italy. According to the study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers have constructed the first spatial model of COVID-19 spread in Italy accounting for both the time evolution of the infection in local communities and their geographical distribution and including the individuals'' mobility to and from work and study-places. The spatial resolution is at the level of provinces. The Istat census has been used to estimate pre-epidemic mobility, while the reduction of mobility due to restrictions has been estimated from an independent study based on mobile phone geolocalisation. The map of infections has been contrasted with data and the model turns out to be quite accurate. Therefore, it can be used to provide scenarios regarding future governmental measures, they said. By analyzing the contagion map, scientists have found that the epidemic has initially spread quite rapidly along with the main transportation infrastructures of their country. "We have updated the model using the most recent data. Our projections confirm a further decrease of new infections in the next weeks if the current containment measures are maintained," said study co-author Enrico Bertuzzo. "We can conclude that the quite restrictive measures enforced since March 10, whose effect is only partially accounted for in the study (concluded at March 25), are responsible for the continuous decrease of the infections that we are observing right now," Gatto said. The Coronavirus pandemic has claimed over 23,000 lives in locked-down Italy, bringing the total number of infections, fatalities, and recoveries so far to 175,925, according to the latest data released by the country's Civil Protection Department on Saturday.